Bills Win! Shock the Jets 41-10

I received a fortuitous Tweet from my buddy Red yesterday. Unprompted, he sends me the following message:"I may regret this, but Matt Barkley is not THAT bad." Barkley started six games from the Bears a couple years ago (Red is a Bears fan), won one of them and threw 8 TDs and 14 interceptions. He did complete almost 60% of his passes, and I think I remember watching him play one time and had about the same reaction Red did, but I also correctly recall him throwing a bunch picks during his time with Bears.

I don't think he threw any today but at least one ball went right into the hands of a Jets defender, who dropped it. No, it wasn't the Jets' day and if Todd Bowles doesn't get fired after that performance at home... well, if I could bet on it I would.

Let's take a look at what happened here:

• The Bills came into the game having scored 46 points in their last six games combined.
• They were starting Barkley of the aforementioned  one win in six starts two years ago
• After kind of a strange career at USC, Barkley had been cut about five times in the last five years by multiple NFL teams
• He was signed by the Bills less than two weeks ago
• The Bills offense had been putting up historically bad numbers
• The Jets had won one more game (3) than the Bills coming in and their defense was ranked 13th in yards allowed.
• Today the Bills today outgained the Jets in yards, 451-199

So, what exactly happened? Barkley looked fairly good - like an NFL quarterback. I mean, all season, the Bills offense has been getting shit. People have been saying the receivers suck, they can't get separation, the O-line can't block anybody, Shady is washed up....but, what do you know, when you get competent quarterback play, the Bills offense is suddenly decent. And, BTW,. the defense looked great again: two picks, three sacks., 3.6 yards per play.

So, there are a few conclusions that can be drawn:

• The Jets stink: definitely a possibility.
• Matt Barkley is a legitimate NFL QB: Despite Red's recommendation, I'd have to say Barkley hadn't proven that to date. I'm going to say that after his junior year at USC, I remember people talking about him like he could be the number one overall pick in the draft. He instead chose to stay at USC and his stock dropped when he wasn't as good as a senior (Robert Woods was one of his receivers and he also had a down year) and injured his shoulder. Maybe Barkley is finally now regaining his confidence (he reportedly had a great pre-season this year with the Bengals before getting hurt and cut). I don't know, but he looked confident and smooth today, and although his arm certainly didn't look the strongest, it looked better than Peterman's and Barkley made most of his throws.
• Peterman and Derrick Anderson were/are abysmal: Who do we blame for having them start the games they did? I mean, it has to be McDermott, but how was it this guy was able to build what looked like a decent team (today at least), around his QBs while f-ing up the most important position in the NFL so badly? Can we trust him going forward?
• Of course, maybe there was just no way the team could lose today in the wake of Poncho Billa's inspiring speech. 

Okay, one final point: There is no way that Allen should start ahead of Barkley vs. the Jags in two weeks. I hope McDermott has at least figured this much out in regards to QBs. I had thought the plan was to let Allen sit and learn behind McCarron for at least half the year. Granted, that didn't work out, but Barkley appears like he might be able to deliver what we had counted on McCarron to do. Let's at least give him a chance to do it. Allen may be great in the future, but he could clearly use some time on the bench behind a competent quarterback to get used to the NFL. And if it turns out Barkley's for real, all the better. More good players is good, as compared to one bad one at a key position dragging everyone else down.

Go Bills.

Rating Worst Quarterbacks in Bills History

With the specter of Nathan Peterman possibly starting Sunday vs. the Colts (I am assuming it will be Derek Anderson, but still...) it got me thinking about some of the bad quarterbacks the Bills have trotted out over the years. I mean Joe Ferguson is probably the third most accomplished quarterback in our franchise history, and I don't remember him being considered as "good" except for a couple years when we made the playoffs under Chuck Knox. Of course, more recently we've had first-round busts like E.J Manuel and J.P. Losman, as well as journeymen like Kelly Holcomb and Tryod taking snaps. But that doesn't really even begin to scratch the surface if you look back through history.

Granted, there are some who feel that Peterman might be the worst quarterback in NFL history.  But,  based on my (somewhat limited) research, memories, and general knowledge of the Buffalo Bills, I rate him only the 4th worst quarterback in our history.

I apologize if I offend anyone with this list, as I am sure all these guys played hard, and some of them went on to success in other areas of life (and they were mostly on some pretty bad teams with passing in the league not nearly as advanced as today), but here goes (in reverse order):

10. Mike Tallaferro/M.C. Reynolds: I don't remember either of these guys, so this is based on numbers only. Tallaferro managed to throw 4 interceptions in 33 attempts (a 12% ratio), which is Peterman territory. A veteran of the Pats and Jets, '72 was his last year in league and only year with the Bills. The '61 Bills somehow managed to win two of the three games Reynolds started, while he threw 13 interceptions against 2 TDs. He threw five passes for Oakland in '63 and then was out of the league. (I cheated by listing two here, but I really felt that 11 players deserved to be on this list.)

9. Ed Rutkowski: This is probably not fair to Rutkowski, because he wasn't really a quarterback. He was a pretty good return specialist who also played some receiver and running back. He doesn't even seem to have played QB in college at Notre Dame. But, in 1968 he was pressed into quarterback duties for a very bad Bills team and managed to go 0-3 as a starter and throw 6 INTs vs. 0 TDs. The closest modern comparison I can think of is if Roscoe Parrish (who reportedly was a great high school QB) had started some games for the Bills when he was on the team a few years back.

8. Jeff Tuel: In 2013, Tuel was considered a hot young prospect by the Bills. So hot, in fact, that the Bills kept him as the primary back-up to unproven rookie starter E.J. Manuel. When Manuel went down to an injury against the Browns in week five, the Bills quickly realized Tuel wasn't the answer and elevated Thad Lewis to starter for the next week. For some reason (maybe Lewis got hurt), Tuel started a few weeks later against the Chiefs, was wholly ineffective, and never attempted another NFL pass.

7. Brian Brohm: A hot prospect coming out of Louisville, Brohm was a second-round pick of the Packers in 2008. I remember being excited when the Bills picked him up the next season. In two years, he started two games with the Bills, went 0-2 and threw no touchdowns vs. 5 picks and then was out of the league.

6. Kay Stephenson: Maybe Kay wasn't that bad of a player in his lone year with the Bills, the awful 1968 season, but for some reason, I feel this stint may have helped him get the head coaching job a few years later, when he took a pretty good playoff team built by Chuck Knox, and in two years turned it into a 2-14 squad. As a quarterback, he was 0-3 as a starter and completed 37% of his passes -well, so, he was pretty bad.

5. Al Dorrow: I have no memory of Al Dorrow. All I know is that he went 0-4 as a starter on a 7-6-1 1962 team coached by Lou Saban, completed 40% of his passes and had 2 TD vs. 7 INTs. It was the end of a journeyman career that included him leading the AFL in TDs in its inaugural year, but also throwing a combined 56 picks in 1960-61 as a member of the Titans (later the Jets).

4. Nathan Peterman: I am assuming you've seen him play.

3. Gary Marangi: Marangi took over for Ferguson midway through the 1976 season when Joe went down with an injury. I was only 10 years old, but I remember being hopeful. Ferguson was having a pretty good year and was coming off a great year in 1975, but maybe we didn't give him the credit he deserved because we felt has was riding O.J.'s coattails. The Bills were 2-4 when Ferguson went down, and Marangi was a third-round pick out of Boston College, so we thought maybe he could revive us., Boy, were we wrong. He went 0-7 as a starter and completed 35% of his passes (an incredibly low number even for then), even with O.J. rushing for 1,500 yards and Bob Chandler grabbing 61 receptions, including 10 TDs. Granted, Saban did quit that year shortly before Ferguson got hurt and was replaced by Jim Ringo, of the career 3-20 coaching record, but still. Marangi never played in an other NFL game.

2. Dan Darragh: Darragh started 11 games for the Bills from 1968-70. His record as a starter was 1-11. He completed 43% of this passes and threw 4 TDs vs. 22 INTs. He never played in the NFL again. That's all I know. Maybe the stats lie, but I'm going with the idea that he was pretty bad. He wasn't a good runner either.

1. Tom Flores: Flores gets special treatment due to extenuating circumstances. Yes, he was bad as a Bills quarterback, completing less than 40% of his passes and throwing 9 picks vs. 0 TDs over three years. But, he came to the Bills after a pretty solid season in Oakland, in which he threw 24 TDs. And we got Flores, along with a Pro Bowl receiver named Art Powell, for our back-up QB Daryle Lamonica. How did that trade happen? Well, Al Davis was a smart guy apparently. Because, while Flores and Powell were washed up and the formerly championship contending Bills went into the tank, Lamonica made All-Pro two of the next three years and the Raiders transformed into an AFL/AFC powerhouse - an era that culminated with Flores winning two Super Bows in the early '80s as their coach!


Well, that's it. Quite a litany of incompetence. And people wonder why we think Jim Kelly walks on water. 

Allen's Injury

Well, we still don't know the status of Josh Allen, but it looked like his elbow was hurting him pretty bad when he left the field yesterday. He is reportedly getting an MRI today.  I am not holding my breath for positive news - throwing elbows are pretty important to quarterbacks and I'd think you'd want to be pretty careful with it. And as I said, he looked like he was in considerable pain yesterday.

Of course, we all know that Nate Peterman came in and threw a pick 6 to basically hand the game to Houston. Thanks, Nate. That was very depressing. I mean, we all knew Peterman was bad. In September, the Ringer even ran a piece questioning the decision making ability of the Bills staff based on their continued faith in Nate Peterman.

On Sunday, Peterman came in and threw a touchdown pass to Zay Jones. That was great. They he didn't look too bad, until the Texans tied the game - after a great goal line stand by the Bills defense forced Houston into a field goal. So, with about two minutes left in the game, the Bills get the ball back and attempt to run a hurry-up to get the ball down field for a potential winning score. Peterman's first pass on this drive missed the mark by like 10 feet. It was at this point I became very worried, not only for the Bills, but for my money.

You see I had been Vegas this past week and threw a bet down on the Bills getting 10. I had figured the line on the game would be 4 or 5 based on how both teams were playing, so when it came out at 10, I went for it. A couple special teams miscues had things looking bleak in the first half, but in the second half, the defense and running game stepped up and it looked like we were back on track with our winning formula. After Peterman's TD pass, we even took the lead. Then game the game-tying field goal....

Peterman's second pass on the ill-fated two-minute drive also missed the mark, widely, and this time it ended up in a Houston defender's hands who ran it back and gave the Texans a seven-point lead. And the Bills were getting the ball back, now with a chance to drive down field and tie the game. But, we all knew that wasn't happening. For me, it just became hoping that Peterman didn't throw another pick-six. Of course, he threw another interception, but thankfully the Texans defender was tackled or ran out of bounds or something and Houston just kneeled down and ran out the clock.

Nate Peterman should not be in the NFL. I think he proved that once and for all on Sunday. Unfortunately, the Bills only signed Derek Anderson (yes that retread) last week, but still, even a week-and-a-half signed Derek Anderson has to be better than Peterman if Allen is hurt, doesn't he? Or does Anderson even want to play? Was he just signed as a mentor? That is unclear.

 I am hoping Anderson plans on playing because there is almost no way I can envision Peterman lining up at starting QB next week. And with the way Allen plays, and as shaky as our O-line is, if not this next week (vs. Pats on Monday night football  I mean Indianapolis at home), then somewhere down the line we are going to need a competent back-up. Is Tyrod Taylor available?

Shady on the Block

It appears like the Eagles have inquired about LeSean McCoy and the Bills have answered with an offer. I would say this will only be a matter of time, unless that Eagles think the Bills are out of their tree asking for second- and third-round picks. Yes, Shady is a great player, and has been for a number of years, but is that too much for a 30-year-old back with 10,000 yards worth of mileage?

I didn't see last Sunday's game, but it did sound like Shady played well enough behind what has been an abysmal offensive line for the most part. And I think he's been very good the last two years as well, so I'm not sure he is slowing down. Plus the Eagles, the defending Super Bowl champs, are now 2-3 and I guess Jay Ajayi is out for the season, and with LeGarrette Blount moved on to the Lions, they are awfully thin and young at RB. Now, the Eagles only gave up a 4th round pick for Ajayi last year, but Shady is a two-time All-Pro, Philly's all-time leading rusher, and in 2016 averaged 5.4 ypc and gained 1,267 yards. That wasn't too long ago in the Not For Long League, I hope. Plus, Shady grew up in the Philly area and I think still has ties there.

Sure, his loss would hurt the Bills, but the Bills management has mostly played the long-term game in dumping our other stars. If we could get a decent haul for Shady to invest in the future - go for it. We are sitting on a full draft plus a couple extra picks next year already. Let's go all in on the future. I think our defense, Chris Ivory and Josh Allen, can still pull out a few wins this year by following the formula.

Oh yeah, and we signed Derrick Anderson too. The only question there is (with his Carolina background), what took so long?

Bills Find Winning Formula

In 2017, the Bills went 9-7 and made the playoffs for the first time in like 15 years. They did it by holding opposing teams at 20-points-or-under in 10 out of 16 contests. The Bills won 8 of these games and only one when the opponent scored more than 20 (the Bucs). So far, this year the Bills are 2-3, having given up a combined total of 18 points in their two victories and a minimum of 22 points in each loss. So, the McDermott-era formula for winning seems to be pretty clear.

Yesterday, the Bills passed for only 79 net yards (82 minus 3 for one sack) but managed to outgain Tennessee slightly, 223-221 . Turnovers, which were also a big factor for the Bills in 2017, went in the Bills favor 3-1, which was a big factor, as was an effective (not great) running game that churned out 144 yards on a whopping 43 carries. That's not quite four yards a tote, but it did help the Bills control the clock to the tune of a seven-minute time-of-possession advantage, which obviously keeps that other team's offense off the field and reduces their opportunities for scoring.

Congrats to the Bills on a great (and ugly at times) win, but hell, after the first two games, 2-3 is a good place to be right now, especially in the AFC. I'm not saying we are going to make the playoffs, but if we can continue to repeat this formula of a decent rushing attack, solid defense, and minimizing turnovers while being opportunistic on D, maybe we can squeak out a few more wins.

Next Sunday will be an interesting test, at Houston, which has all sorts of offensive firepower but seems to keep getting in its own way. They are also 2-3. I think a win is possible but not probable, but then again, Houston only scored 19 at home vs. Dallas yesterday. Let's hope we can run the ball effectively and keep JJ Watt and friends from messing up Allen. 

Wisdom of the Odyssey

From Book 17, when Odysseus is back on Ithaca, pretending to be a beggar and discussing his return to his mansion to face the humiliation of the suitors:

"I've had my share of pain in the waves and wars.
Add this to the total. Bring the trial on.
But there's no way to hide the belly's hungers--
what a curse, what mischief it brews in all our lives!
Just for hunger we rig and ride our long benched ships
on the barren salt sea, speeding death to our enemies."

Well, I am heading to Nashville for a business trip today. 😎

Bills Back to Sucking Again

Maybe it just took having some film on Josh Allen, maybe the Vikings were really overlooking the Bills and the Bills were just pumped up - probably a combination of both. Regardless, a Packers defense that had been giving up like 30 points a game going into Sunday, shut out the Bills 22-0. I guess the Bills D only gave up six points in the second half, but I kinda watched the game (on my phone as my son had a game) and it didn't look like we were scaring the Packers at all. Tremaine Edwards looked good and so did Tre'Davious White, from what I saw at least. There also looked to be continuing problems at the left cornerback spot - opposite White.

Bills play the 3-1 Titans at home Sunday. Titans have won three games by a total of 9 points and lost one by seven. Their last two wins have come against Jacksonville and Philly (their loss is go Miami). I really don't know what to make of them. Let's hope Bills offense can do a little more at home and maybe the defense will stand tough.

Without looking I'm calling the line as Titans by five.

Packers should be scared

Bills beat the Vikings 27-6 last week in Minnesota. I love saying that! Two weeks ago, Vikings and Packers tied at Lambeau. Last night, the Rams, who many consider the best team in the league, went to 4-0 by beating Minnesota 38-31 in Los Angeles.  That's right, what the Bills did to the Vikings was more dominant than what the much ballyhooed Rams did to them.

Should I make my reservations for Super Bowl LIII yet?

Poor Kavanaugh: Dude Needs to Step Away

Another day, another woman coming out with sexual misconduct charges against Brett Kavanaugh.  The dude really needs to step away from his nomination at this point. I mean I get that all this seems to have happened in high school (and college, I guess) and that he has likely matured significantly since then, but does anyone really believe in his denials anymore?

I mean, his best friend in high school was apparently this author, Mark Judge, who wrote a book called Wasted: Tales of a Genx Drunk. I mean, I was there guys. I am about your age and I know what kind of shit went down in the '80s. I was never a part of any gang rapes, as this latest woman is accusing Kavanaugh of being part of, but I did some pretty bad things and in some respects am probably lucky to be alive. Bad shit went down in the '80s, we get that, but why can't Kavanaugh just admit to it and explain that he has moved on? That would work for me.

But instead, he seems to be following Trump's lead and denying everything, hoping that if you keep repeating it, people will believe it. For me, his credibility is shot and I certainly would not want a liar serving on the Supreme Court. And I apologize if I'm wrong and he is telling the truth, but there seems to be so much smoke that there was to be a fire somewhere.

Bills Win Big: Of Course They Do

So, the Bills won huge yesterday, pasting the Minnesota Vikings 27-6, in Minnesota no less. The Bills came into the game as 17-point underdogs. It has been classified as the biggest upset in the NFL in 23 years. 

Yup, these are the Buffalo Bills who have been pilloried by everyone for the last two weeks as having possibly one of the worst teams in NFL history. But, there were a few things that led me to be optimistic heading into Sunday's game vs. the Vikings. First off, the Bills had actually outscored the Chargers 14-3 in the second half last week. This was after Vontae Davis infamously quit and Head Coach Sean McDermott assumed defensive playcalling duties from Coordinator Leslie Frazier.

On Sunday, Frazier retook the retook the reins of the defense, but Davis was still gone. Here's what a very insightful article on The Ringer had to say about Davis' departure: "Before Davis retired, the Bills played six quarters and were outscored 75-9. Since Davis retired, the Bills have played six quarters and have outscored the opposition 41-9."

The second factor playing in the Bills' favor is that the Vikings were likely overlooking them. Last Sunday, they played to a hard-fought tie with their arch-rivals, the Packers, and this Thursday they have to go to Los Angeles to face the red-hot Rams - in a throwback to a number of great  '70s tilts between these two squads. The Vikings definitely came out flat,.

I have to admit I was unusually excited for the game - maybe because I hadn't been able to watch the Bills' first two games, due to my son having youth games at the same time. His game this past Sunday wasn't until four, so I figured I would at least get to watch the first half vs. Vikings - and it would likely be over by then anyway. It was over of course, just not in the way anyone expected.

I also was inspired to pull out the Taz shirt from the bottom of my drawer yesterday morning:

I think I've had that shirt since the glory days of the '90s and I'm not sure when the last time it saw action was, but you can't dispute yesterday's results. The question is do I wear it next week and until the Bills lose, or save it for another big game? Yes, I said another big game! The playoffs are certainly not out of reach....

No seriously, New England looks like they are not very good (of course, how many times have we said that before they turned it around) and we never thought Miami or the Jets were going to be good. And the Bills defense has looked very solid for 6 straight quarters now - which was the key to getting us to 9-7 and a playoff birth last year. Plus Allen looks legitimately better than Tyrod (bad week for his stock). Maybe when/if Shady comes back, we'll be even better. Who, knows? It's all in play now (5-11 also is) as we move to Green Bay next week. Go Bills.

Insights on Women and Guests from the Odyssey

I think I have mentioned that I am re-reading the Odyssey, an abbreviated version of which I first came across in grade school, and a story which has fascinated me ever since. As always, when re-reading something, the different perspective you bring to the material gives it a new spin. And the Odyssey offers plenty of content for spinning.

I tried reading the preface to the Robert Fagles version I have, and there were some points in there about Homer's treatment of women in the text. I think Fagles (or whoever wrote the preface) said he treated them fairly well, so I have been kind of watching for that throughout the text. Women are clearly very powerful in the Odyssey - after all, Helen started the Trojan Way, but they are certainly not treated as equals of men. That said, this lack of equality doesn't mean they aren't just as powerful.

Helen, for instance, is found back in Menelaus' house, and her stature and position don't seem to have been diminished by her "fling" with Paris.

Of course, there does seem to be a bit of treachery and untrustworthiness associated with several women in the Odyssey.

There is Agamemnon's wife, Clytemnestra, who with her lover ambushes and kills the great Greek king upon his return home from Troy - not good luck with women those sons of Atreus, who apparently had some trouble with his own wife as well.

Then there is Penelope, Odysseus lonely wife and heroine of the story. While he's gone, she keeps to herself for the most part, but also won't rule out the suitors and seems to lead them on, until of course they meet their bloody deaths at the hands of the hero. In Book 15, Athena encourages Telemachus, Odysseus' son to sail home with the following warning, "You know how the heart of a woman always works: she likes to build the wealth of her new groom - of the sons she bore of her dear, departed husband, not a memory of the dead, no questions asked." Hmmm, a rather curious depiction of the duplicity of women.

Penelope is painted as both a hero and a potential villainous, but it's precisely this complexity of character that makes the Odyssey so interesting and enjoyable 10,000 years after it was written. Odysseus himself is far from perfect, and of course, neither are the gods!

Book 15 also includes this very perceptive insight on guests that still holds true today. According to Menelaus, when talking to Telemachus, "Balance is the best in all things. It's bad either way, spurring the stranger home who wants to linger, holding the one who wants to leave - you know, 'Welcome the coming, speed the parting guest!'" Timeless wisdom, for sure!

Butler to the Clips?

Don't know what to make of this. I think it's a great sign that they are on the top of his trade list and I like the part in the story where it says, the Clippers "are emerging as a front-runner for Kawhi Leonard when Toronto's All-NBA forward becomes a free agent in July," but there is also this "The market for Butler, 29, will likely be the five-year, $190 million maximum extension that could come with a trade to a new team, which means a team would be committing $40 million-plus annually to Butler as he reaches his mid-30s," and this, "it remains uncertain how much -- if anything -- the Clippers would trade for a player whom the team could sign this summer without surrendering any assets."

So, basically it seems the Clippers could execute a sign-and-trade for Butler, but that would require giving up prospects for a 30-year old on a max contract, and I'm not sure our (relatively) new guru Jerry West would want to do that. But, if we were guaranteed to get Kawhi, maybe he and Butler could be a foundation for something great for the next few years. I'd be very tempted to trade for Butler if I thought I was going to get Kawhi.

Big gambles with hundreds of millions of dollars going on here, but, that's the League.

Good luck Clips.

Bills Suck Again; Davis Departs

The Bills sucked again this week, managing to go down 28-3, before apparently stabilizing things and making it a respectable 31-20 loss - at home, to the San Diego  Los Angeles Chargers. I want to say that Phillip Rivers completed like 15 of his first 16 passes (I did not watch the game as it wasn't on locally and my son had a youth game anyhow). Rivers fast start was against a pass defense that included veteran cornerback Vontae Davis, who was one of the Bills' top off season free agent signings. Davis was inactive in Week 1, started Week 2 and then retired at halftime. Shades of Anquan Boldin from last year . What is it about these Bills that makes people want to walk away from the Bills? Is the fan base next? (SI pointed out that Kyle Orton left the Bills a few years back in similar fashion, not to mention Doug Marrone [who now coaches possibly the best team in the AFC] taking the money and running.)

Also, apparently McDermott took over defense play calling responsibilities from coordinator Leslie Frazier, which helped lead to the second-half improvement. This wouldn't seem to bode well for Frazier, the former Vikings head coach (21-32-1) who was hired by the Bills prior to last year. Is he even going to make the trip to Minnesota this week?

Next two weeks we are at Minnesota and Green Bay, so I'm expecting an 0-4 start. Maybe we can get Tennessee at home the following week, but I have no idea. Josh Allen seemed to play better than Peterman ever has at QB, so he's likely the guy from here on out. Let's hope he improves enough to lead us to some wins. 

Allen getting the Starting Nod

It seems that Josh Allen is getting the starting nod for the Bills this Sunday at home vs. the San Diego Los Angeles Chargers. Not exactly sure what to make of this. On one hand, it appears the Bills are throwing him into the fire vs. a ferocious pass rush - on the other hand Nathan Peterman certainly hasn't proven he is a capable NFL starting QB, so why not start letting Allen gain some experience now? Potential injuries and a loss of confidence long-term are probably the two reasons against starting Allen, but at least with Allen you appear to be working toward some future goal. The Peterman road seems to be a dead end.

Good luck Josh. It can't be as bad as last Sunday's 3-47 loss to Baltimore or last year's 24-54 loss at the Chargers when Peterman threw 5 INTs in the first half of his first professional start, can it? My paranoia tells me yes, but let's hope I'm over-reacting.

Book Recommendation: The Music of Chance

by Paul Auster.

About a guy who comes into a bunch of money, blows it, hooks up with a degenerate gambler and gets into some really hot water with some rich guys.

Amazon listing

Trust the Process

We've clearly reached the "Trust the Process" phase of the Bills rebuild. After Sunday's 47-3 beatdown by the Ravens, what else could you surmise?

Head Coach Sean McDermott has consistently shipped talent out of town - including Marcel Darius, Sammy Watkins, and Tryod Taylor and brought in his own players. The result is a roster without a lot of proven talent, aside from LeSean McCoy, Tre'Davious White and maybe Jerry Hughes, Kyle Williams, and a few others (I guess the safeties) and a bunch of McDermott's guys.

Yeah, we made the playoffs last year, but three players that are now gone - Tyrod, Eric Wood, and Richie Incognito - had a lot to do with making the offense competent at times - at least enough times to finish 9-7. The defense was fairly decent last year and didn't seem to lose too many players, so, I'm not sure what happened yesterday vs. Ravens, maybe it was an anomaly. But, I don't think I'm expecting the playoffs this year. We do play the Dolphins and Jets twice each, so maybe 5-11 would be an optimistic outlook.

On top of that, you have to trust that McDermott is really building something from the ground up. I like Josh Allen (have wanted him for the Bills since I first heard about him after his outstanding junior year), and guess the idea is to fill in some pieces in around him. In his first game yesterday, rookie Tremaine Edwards looked like a stud from all reports, and last year's first round pick, White, has also looked like a winner. But the o'line seems to be devoid of talent and something obviously gave on the defense....So, we'll see if McDermott gets this right, but unfortunately, it appears like we may have to suffer through at least one miserable year. I'm willing to do that, if there is light at the end of the tunnel. The Bills did go back-to-back 2-14s in the mid-'80s before emerging as a championship contender a few years later. So, there is some precedent.

For now, I guess we can always take heart in the success of our castoffs like Ryan Fitzpatrick, who passed for 417 yards and 4 TDs yesterday while leading the Buccaneers to a 48-40 win over the Saints. Yeah right, while our quarterbacks threw for 70 yards with no TDs and two interceptions. Hopefully in another five years, when we are celebrating our latest AFC championship, this will all be a bad, distant memory. Either that or we'll be gnashing our teeth through yet another rebuild.

Ringer Ranks Bills Number 32

Yes, that's last in their pre-season NFL power rankings. The good news is there is nowhere to go but up. The bad news is that I might agree with that ranking. The only reason I say "might" is that I really don't know how good any of the other 31 teams are, only really closely following the Bills in pre-season. Okay, I might think that the Patriots could no way be worse than the Bills, but as for the Jets and Dolphins - our two other divisional foes, as far as I know we might be better.

Yes, the Bills o-line has looked like shit in the preseason and we seem to be starting the season with a quarterback who threw five interceptions in a half in his only NFL start that I remember last year - it does seem he also started the Snow Bowl win - but we couldn't see who was playing. My feeling is that Peterman inspires a lot more confidence in the Bills coaches and Pitt alumni (who all tell me he is good) than he does in me. But, I thought we would absolutely stink last year and a strong defense and running game actually led us into the playoffs, where we were at least competitive with Jacksonville - til Peterman through an interception of course.

So, what are we looking at this year? I am going to maintain my pessimism in spite of last year's performance (maybe it will pay off again) and go with 4-12 with at least half those wins coming in the division.

Opposing views on ruling in the Underworld

As I may have mentioned, I am currently re-reading The Odyssey - one of the pillars on which Western literature is built. In Book 11, Odysseus (our hero) makes a trip to Hades, at the direction of the witch Circe, to get directions to help him return home to Ithaca. He can only get these directions from some dead seer. Circe instructs him on how to manage the dead, and it involves slaying an animal and allowing its blood to drain into a trench. The dead can then drink from this trench and communicate with Odysseus.

He talks to the seer and gets his directions but then he wants to catch up with some of his old comrades from the Trojan War, who have since passed. He catches up with Agamemnon who was ambushed and slain by his wife and her lover upon his return to Greece. He also sees Achilles, the great hero of The Iliad who killed Hector. Early on in the Iliad, Achilles was famously offered the choice between a long and forgotten existence and a much shorter heroic one, after which his name would be remembered forever. It's obvious which path he chose.

When he sees Achilles, Odysseus suggests, "I see, you lord it over the dead in all your power. So grieve no more at dying, great Achilles."

To which, Achilles responds, "No winning words about death to me, shining Odysseus! By god, I'd rather slave on earth for another man - some dirt-poor tenant farmer who scrapes to keep alive - than rule down here over all the breathless dead."

Contrast that to Milton's famous quote from Lucifer in Paradise Lost: "Better to reign in Hell, then serve in Heaven."

I prefer Achilles zest for life, but what do you expect out of the Devil?

How Babe Ruth's Rise Mirrored a Change in American Culture

I am currently reading a recently published book highlighting Mickey Mantle's 1956 season - the first in which he won the MVP (Mantle would win two more, including 1957). The book is entitled A Season in the Sun, the Rise of Mickey Mantle. It's fairly interesting, but people have cited some inaccuracies as troublesome. The one thing I noticed is that the authors (who I believe have history background moreso than sports) refer to runs batted in as RBIs, when I believe is technically supposed to be expressed as "RBI" - as runs in the plural, not "in."

Anyhow, I found an interesting description in the book that applies not to Mantle, but to one of his Yankee-great predecessors: Babe Ruth. This apparently comes from an article entitled "The Babe on Balance," which appeared in a 1975 issue of the journal American Scholar. Here's the quote as it appears in the Mantle book (the bolding is mine):

"He challenged Ty Cobb's small-ball notions of scientific baseball, a strategy that emphasized getting on base, sacrificing the runner to second, executing hit-and-run plays, and protecting a one- or two-run lead. But his impact transcended the sport. Ruth's approach dovetailed with the instant gratification peddled by the nascent advertising industry. Swing for the fences, buy now and pay later, the world is at your fingertips - it all became part of the same consumer-driven culture. In Yankee pinstripes he was more than a baseball player; he was a prophet whose mighty swings made spectators gasp in wonder at the potentialities of man. He was the Great Gatsby of baseball. It seemed as if nothing was beyond his reach."

I think that does a great job of summing up the evolution of America to a consumer-driven society, which started in the 1920s and continues to this day, at least the way I have learned it.

Trash Talk from the Odyssey

This type of stuff apparently dates back all the way to the 8th Century B.C.

“Oh I knew it!”  

Broadsea broke in, mocking him (Odysseus) to his face.

“I never took you for someone skilled in games,

the kind that real men play throughout the world.

Not a chance. You’re some skipper of profiteers,

roving the the high seas in his scudding craft,

reckoning up his freight with a keen eye out

for home-cargo, grabbling the gold he can!

You’re not athlete. I see that.”

The Odyssey by Homer

Chapter 8, verses 183-89

Translated by Robert Fagles

Odysseus, of course, foils this upstart by heaving a discus apparently over everyone's heads (as they cringe) and he receives a nice jewel studded sword as reparation, but still....

According to AI, We are Doomed to Mass Extinction

Is all human intelligence just pattern recognition and should it be telling us that we are doomed to mass extinction?

As part of my job, I study trends in the artificial intelligence industry. I have done briefings discussing AI and how it works. From what I can I tell, it is based primarily on nothing more than advanced pattern recognition. If given enough examples and truth sets, AI-driven computers ( the machines in machine learning) are able to determine patterns, and then when they are given new stuff, they are able to match it with  these patterns, and we are calling that learning.

So, is that all that people do to? Do we make judgments based on patterns that we think we recognize? Isn’t that how one predicts the outcome of a future event?

I have also read a few writings on the idea of mass extinctions. Related to pattern recognition, one of the points of studying history seems to be to try and prevent the mistakes of/learn from the past.

There was an article in The Atlantic recently that discussed different theories for the extinction of the dinosaurs. The specifics are not really important, aside from that the bottom line is climate change - and climate change is also possibly responsible for all the other mass extinctions the earth has gone through, and we are possibly going through another climate change that could lead to the next mass extinction which would take out humans.

The ironic part to me is that we think we have the power to stop this climate change. But, shouldn't our intelligence tell us that this is not the case?

Let’s go back and say there have been like five mass extinctions so far. And each one  was caused by a change in climate/atmospheric conditions. What makes us think we can halt the sixth one? The popular reasoning is that we are to blame for the changing climate this time around, so we should be able to make a decision and act to stop it. That’s nice, but who or what is to blame for the five previous mass extinctions? In the case of the dinosaurs, we like to blame an asteroid (The Atlantic piece puts forward a volcano theory, but either way). Could that have been stopped? Probably not by the dinosaurs.

From my view, it seems that these mass extinctions are merely a result of evolution, and we (humans) are just part of all that takes place in these giant patterns that include mass extinctions. Can we help ourselves from ruining the environment? The answer would seem to be “no,” that we are just a vehicle, like an asteroid (or volcanic) eruption that is the agent for this change.

That said, if you believe in the "divine spark" and that some divine power indeed makes humans different than all else in creation, it's possibly to argue that things could turn out differently. I am not saying that this type of belief is wrong, it just doesn't seem to fit in with logic-based scientific models.

So, where does that leave us? There is always hope that the God-based, divine spark model is true, so we should continue to work to reverse/slow the pace of climate change. But, based on our intellect, we also shouldn't be surprised if we fail. On a positive note, if you apply technology adoption curves I typically see in the market to climate change, it will take a lot longer for it to really gain steam that we are initially anticipating. Of course, once it does...is it possible to prepare for a mass extinction?

If we Only had a QB

AJ McCarron seems like a good enough guy. And I like the contract we signed him to. It's basically a fairly decent back-up QB contract that has incentive clauses that will pay him like a starter should he earn the job. And he says the right things about how he's not going to be outworked when competing with whoever else the Bills bring in. And despite all the nice things everyone keeps saying about Nathan Peterman, we know he's not going to be the starter.

Now, I know it's the Browns, but it makes me suspicious that their powers-that-be, after reportedly being ready to trade second- and third-round picks to the Bengals for McCarron late last season, seemed to abandon going after him in the offseason and instead opted to trade the Bills a high third-round pick for the right to pay Tyrod Taylor $15 million for one-year of service. Basically, the Browns very affirmatively chose Tyrod over McCarron, and now we are stuck with McCarron.

Unless, of course, we plan to draft a quarterback, which I kind of assumed was the plan, but that prospect is starting to look a little dicey. There are basically three to four quarterbacks (depending what you think of Baker Mayfield) that scouts seem to think worthy of being high first round picks this year and it seems like they will be gone in the first five picks of the draft. The Browns and Jets have two of those picks. The Bills have the 12th pick. Granted, we have plenty of draft "capital" to trade up, but after what the Jets paid the Colts for #3, I'm not sure how much I want to give up for #2 or #4. Brandon Beane may be having some of these same questions. After all, the Bills seem to be quite a bit more than a QB away from being a true contending team.

Yes, we made the playoffs last year, but how much of that was flukey? At minimum, we need a WR, an offensive lineman, and a linebacker, in addition to a QB. If we could draft one player at each of those positions with our first and second round picks, and leverage that first pick of the third round (from the Browns) as well, I think I'd feel better than spending it all on a QB.

 Or would I?

And if we do trade up and take a QB, who is that QB? Josh Allen? Lot of questions around him. Indications are Browns are taking Darnold. Is Rosen a good fit? Do we sit at 12 and take Lamar Jackson, or is that the type of QB play we were trying to get away from by trading Tyrod, a very dynamic runner with some questionable throwing, but Jackson has a better passing game that Tyrod, doesn't he?

This is confusing. We'll see where it ends up. But I am not comfortable with A.J. McCarron being our top QB going into next year. Or should I be? The Browns have been wrong before haven't they?