All-Time Bills Head Coaches Ranked - Part 1

Somebody asked me recently if I like Sean McDermott as a coach. Well, as a Bills fan for the past 45 years, I have to say, yes, he's certainly been been better than a lot of our coaches. Then, today I came across one of those links on ESPN for "The Worst Head Coaches in NFL History" and was expecting to find at least Harvey Johnson and possibly Jim Ringo represented, but, alas, neither appeared, likely forgotten in their 5-45-1 ineptitude - and the fact that it occurred in Buffalo. Yes, younger Bills fans, if you think your team is bad these days, fathom that winning percentage (it's .100 for the mathematically challenged). It was achieved in four seasons over 10 years - luckily only two were consecutive. Of course, Lou Saban, who is actually one of the most remarkable coaches in Bills history, appeared smack in the middle of all that.

Anyhow, this all inspired me to come with an all-time ranking of Bills head coaches over the years. I feel like I have some familiarity with all of them except the initial guy - Buster Ramsey - as I became a Bills fan in 1974 - during "The Second Age of Saban" (Lou, not Nick) and as Saban started with the Bills in their third year (1963) I feel connected to everything that came after him.

I grouped these in tiers, starting at the top:

Championship Winners
1. Marv Levy: Well, so, Levy didn't win a Super Bowl, so no NFL championship, but he did win four AFC titles, which I guess is technically the same as Saban's AFL championships, because in 1964-65 there was no Super Bowl, and who's to say that the Bills could have beat the Browns or Packers anyway, although the '64 team was pretty awesome. We'll also get to Saban's baggage, but Levy was simply great as a Bills coach with a 112-70 (.615) regular season record and a 19-11 playoff record - not to mention a place in the Hall of Fame. The only argument against Levy is that his teams were stacked, but it's important to note that he was the one who first discovered Bill Polian, the architect of the great '90s teams, when Levy hired Polian as a scout back in his days with the Kansas City Chiefs, so the two are inexorably linked.

2. Lou Saban:  Lou's record with Buffalo was 68-45-4 (.605) in the regular season and 2-2 in the playoffs (smaller tournament back then) but those two wins produced two titles for the Bills in 1964 and 1965. After leaving Buffalo following the second title, Saban returned seven years later and built the  Bills back up into a playoff team again. Saban is known as a coaching nomad, having made something like 20 stops in a long and winding career as a head coach at the high school, college and professional levels. But, his biggest successes came in Buffalo, where he turned a fledgling franchise into a champion, and after the team crumbled in the wake of his departure, returned and coached them up again. Of course, the Bills once again crumbled after he left the second time and Ralph Wilson wouldn't even put Saban on the Wall of Fame due to bad feelings over it.

Defensive Gurus:

3. Chuck Knox:  Chuck Knox was a very good football coach - especially in the regular season. In 22 years as an NFL head coach (with three different teams, including the Rams twice), Knox was 186-147-1 (.558) and this was somewhat tainted by his last four seasons, when he failed to record a winning record. Unfortunately, he was 7-11 in the playoffs, so he was kind of like an old school Andy Reid, but Knox's specialty was defense. He began his head coaching career in 1973 with the Rams and proceeded to go 54-15-1 in six seasons but couldn't make it past the NFC Championship game, falling to the Cowboys or Vikings every year. So, in 1978, he ended up in Buffalo, taking over a team that had gone a combined 5-23 the previous two seasons. By Knox's second season, the Bills were 7-9 and had the eighth ranked defense in the league. The 1980 and 1981 teams featured top six defenses and both made the playoffs, losing in the divisional round. In the strike-shortened 1982 season, the Bills struggled to a 4-5 record, dropping their last three games to miss the playoffs. Knox and Wilson then had a disagreement over salary and Knox ended up going to Seattle, where he turned around the Seahawks and took them to the playoffs in the four of the next six years.

4. Sean McDermott: Yes, I am going to place Sean McDermott here, even though he arguably took over a mediocre team from Rex Ryan and made it, well, mediocre - so far at least. Sure, McDermott has yet to win a playoff game, but either has anyone else on this list after Knox (and he won one Wild Card game). I am basing this ranking on what I see as McDermott's potential. He seems to have a plan and has certainly developed a top notch defense. Now, if we can just fix that offensive thing...

5. Wade Phillips: Speaking of defense, Wade is regarded as one of the all-time great defensive coordinators , his reputation cemented when the Broncos shut down the Panthers to win the Super Bowl a few years back. Last year, he helped the Rams make it to the Super Bowl. With Buffalo, Phillips also had a top 10 defense that peaked in 1999, when the Bills went 11-5 before falling in the Music City Miracle game. Overall, Phillips had a 29-19 regular season and 0-2 playoff record with the Bills, so he really didn't do a bad job, but you still felt he was riding the wave of those great Levy teams. And, of course, he oversaw the whole Flutie vs. Johnson fiasco. Phillips was fired after an 8-8 season when he showed loyalty by refusing to fire some of his assistants (as I remember it, or maybe it was refusing to wear a headset on the sidelines).

Coming next:  A Parade of Mediocrity.

Quarterbacks Going the Way of Running Backs.

Here's an interesting little tidbit I found on the Web when searching to see who the NFL's highest paid quarterbacks are: None of the top six paid quarterbacks in the league willmake the playoffs. That's right, Rodgers, Ryan, Cousins, Stafford, etc., not to mention Roethlisberger and Flacco, who both carry a cap hits of more than $20 million, led their teams to the playoffs this year.

On the other side of the ledger, you had Mahomes, Trubisky, Goff, Deshaun Watson, and Dak Prescott (I'm not sure how you want to count Wentz and Lamar Jackson) - playing on their rookie contracts - take their teams to the promised land.

Here is what I believe: Quarterbacks are coming out of college more ready than ever and getting better coaching when they reach the pros. I had the opportunity to go to the Bills game last Sunday and watch Josh Allen throw three TD passes and run for two more, for which he was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week. Allen has certainly struggled at times this year, as was to be expected as he was considered the most "raw" of the any of the top QBs in last year's draft, but by the end of the year, he certainly looked like he could compete on an NFL level. More improvements should be expected next year, as well as from Baker Mayfield, who was great this year, leading the Browns to practically more wins in 2018 than they've had in the last decade, Sam Darnold, who showed flashes of brilliance, Josh Rosen and Lamar Jackson, who's team is already in the playoffs.

My point is, why pay a veteran quarterback $20 million per year, when you can draft a top rookie, pay him on his initial contract for 4-5 years and then, if you did it right, draft another, in the mean time paying people around him, like the Bears and Rams have done, to create a strong overall roster? This Bills, for example, apparently have $86 million cap space (not sure if this includes Shady's contract) available for next year, which potentially enables them to sign some serious free agents to build around Allen (assuming they can attract them to Buffalo). Could the Bills be a contender in 2019 and/or '20? Why not?

After that, you have to make a decision on Allen. How good will college QBs coming out be in three years? I know this year seems like a thin year for QBs in the draft, so maybe what I am proposing is a fallacy and the last two years were anomalies, but I am thinking it may be a trend.

Here's my theory: No more taking several years to develop quarterbacks and then paying them big money when they mature. Bring them out of college, let them run all they want to (ala Allen and Jackson), use them up, and move on to the next college phenom. In the mean time, use that $20 million (probably $30 million in a couple years) that you had earmarked for you QB and pay your defense, lineman, receivers, etc. Seems to have worked for the Seahawks for a few years and is working for multiple teams right now. Perhaps this is the next blueprint for success in the NFL.

Rating Worst Quarterbacks in Bills History

With the specter of Nathan Peterman possibly starting Sunday vs. the Colts (I am assuming it will be Derek Anderson, but still...) it got me thinking about some of the bad quarterbacks the Bills have trotted out over the years. I mean Joe Ferguson is probably the third most accomplished quarterback in our franchise history, and I don't remember him being considered as "good" except for a couple years when we made the playoffs under Chuck Knox. Of course, more recently we've had first-round busts like E.J Manuel and J.P. Losman, as well as journeymen like Kelly Holcomb and Tryod taking snaps. But that doesn't really even begin to scratch the surface if you look back through history.

Granted, there are some who feel that Peterman might be the worst quarterback in NFL history.  But,  based on my (somewhat limited) research, memories, and general knowledge of the Buffalo Bills, I rate him only the 4th worst quarterback in our history.

I apologize if I offend anyone with this list, as I am sure all these guys played hard, and some of them went on to success in other areas of life (and they were mostly on some pretty bad teams with passing in the league not nearly as advanced as today), but here goes (in reverse order):

10. Mike Tallaferro/M.C. Reynolds: I don't remember either of these guys, so this is based on numbers only. Tallaferro managed to throw 4 interceptions in 33 attempts (a 12% ratio), which is Peterman territory. A veteran of the Pats and Jets, '72 was his last year in league and only year with the Bills. The '61 Bills somehow managed to win two of the three games Reynolds started, while he threw 13 interceptions against 2 TDs. He threw five passes for Oakland in '63 and then was out of the league. (I cheated by listing two here, but I really felt that 11 players deserved to be on this list.)

9. Ed Rutkowski: This is probably not fair to Rutkowski, because he wasn't really a quarterback. He was a pretty good return specialist who also played some receiver and running back. He doesn't even seem to have played QB in college at Notre Dame. But, in 1968 he was pressed into quarterback duties for a very bad Bills team and managed to go 0-3 as a starter and throw 6 INTs vs. 0 TDs. The closest modern comparison I can think of is if Roscoe Parrish (who reportedly was a great high school QB) had started some games for the Bills when he was on the team a few years back.

8. Jeff Tuel: In 2013, Tuel was considered a hot young prospect by the Bills. So hot, in fact, that the Bills kept him as the primary back-up to unproven rookie starter E.J. Manuel. When Manuel went down to an injury against the Browns in week five, the Bills quickly realized Tuel wasn't the answer and elevated Thad Lewis to starter for the next week. For some reason (maybe Lewis got hurt), Tuel started a few weeks later against the Chiefs, was wholly ineffective, and never attempted another NFL pass.

7. Brian Brohm: A hot prospect coming out of Louisville, Brohm was a second-round pick of the Packers in 2008. I remember being excited when the Bills picked him up the next season. In two years, he started two games with the Bills, went 0-2 and threw no touchdowns vs. 5 picks and then was out of the league.

6. Kay Stephenson: Maybe Kay wasn't that bad of a player in his lone year with the Bills, the awful 1968 season, but for some reason, I feel this stint may have helped him get the head coaching job a few years later, when he took a pretty good playoff team built by Chuck Knox, and in two years turned it into a 2-14 squad. As a quarterback, he was 0-3 as a starter and completed 37% of his passes -well, so, he was pretty bad.

5. Al Dorrow: I have no memory of Al Dorrow. All I know is that he went 0-4 as a starter on a 7-6-1 1962 team coached by Lou Saban, completed 40% of his passes and had 2 TD vs. 7 INTs. It was the end of a journeyman career that included him leading the AFL in TDs in its inaugural year, but also throwing a combined 56 picks in 1960-61 as a member of the Titans (later the Jets).

4. Nathan Peterman: I am assuming you've seen him play.

3. Gary Marangi: Marangi took over for Ferguson midway through the 1976 season when Joe went down with an injury. I was only 10 years old, but I remember being hopeful. Ferguson was having a pretty good year and was coming off a great year in 1975, but maybe we didn't give him the credit he deserved because we felt has was riding O.J.'s coattails. The Bills were 2-4 when Ferguson went down, and Marangi was a third-round pick out of Boston College, so we thought maybe he could revive us., Boy, were we wrong. He went 0-7 as a starter and completed 35% of his passes (an incredibly low number even for then), even with O.J. rushing for 1,500 yards and Bob Chandler grabbing 61 receptions, including 10 TDs. Granted, Saban did quit that year shortly before Ferguson got hurt and was replaced by Jim Ringo, of the career 3-20 coaching record, but still. Marangi never played in an other NFL game.

2. Dan Darragh: Darragh started 11 games for the Bills from 1968-70. His record as a starter was 1-11. He completed 43% of this passes and threw 4 TDs vs. 22 INTs. He never played in the NFL again. That's all I know. Maybe the stats lie, but I'm going with the idea that he was pretty bad. He wasn't a good runner either.

1. Tom Flores: Flores gets special treatment due to extenuating circumstances. Yes, he was bad as a Bills quarterback, completing less than 40% of his passes and throwing 9 picks vs. 0 TDs over three years. But, he came to the Bills after a pretty solid season in Oakland, in which he threw 24 TDs. And we got Flores, along with a Pro Bowl receiver named Art Powell, for our back-up QB Daryle Lamonica. How did that trade happen? Well, Al Davis was a smart guy apparently. Because, while Flores and Powell were washed up and the formerly championship contending Bills went into the tank, Lamonica made All-Pro two of the next three years and the Raiders transformed into an AFL/AFC powerhouse - an era that culminated with Flores winning two Super Bows in the early '80s as their coach!


Well, that's it. Quite a litany of incompetence. And people wonder why we think Jim Kelly walks on water. 

Bills Back to Sucking Again

Maybe it just took having some film on Josh Allen, maybe the Vikings were really overlooking the Bills and the Bills were just pumped up - probably a combination of both. Regardless, a Packers defense that had been giving up like 30 points a game going into Sunday, shut out the Bills 22-0. I guess the Bills D only gave up six points in the second half, but I kinda watched the game (on my phone as my son had a game) and it didn't look like we were scaring the Packers at all. Tremaine Edwards looked good and so did Tre'Davious White, from what I saw at least. There also looked to be continuing problems at the left cornerback spot - opposite White.

Bills play the 3-1 Titans at home Sunday. Titans have won three games by a total of 9 points and lost one by seven. Their last two wins have come against Jacksonville and Philly (their loss is go Miami). I really don't know what to make of them. Let's hope Bills offense can do a little more at home and maybe the defense will stand tough.

Without looking I'm calling the line as Titans by five.

NFL: Truly a quarterback league

I spent the good part of the late afternoon and evening watching NFL football yesterday. Maggie wasn't too excited about it, but my youngest son, Andrew, who is 10, wasn't feeling too great and he was really looking forward to watching the games, so, being the great father that I am, I sacrificed my time and sat and watched football for seven hours.

My biggest observation - when they say the NFL is a quarterback league, the are not kidding. After Sunday's action, the four quarterbacks left include three Super Bowl Champions with seven titles among them, as well as the guy who is favored to the win the NFL MVP this year.

This does not bode well for the Bills and their pending decision on whether or not to keep Tyrod Taylor. Taylor certainly is not in the class of Brady, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, or Matty Ice, and likely never will be. He's just not a great, classic dropback quarterback like those four - although Rodgers takes it to a different level with his scrambling ability. I don't know that Taylor can even be as good as poor Alex Smith, who is now seemingly to Andy Reid in a just-not-good-enough-to-win-in-the-playoffs chain that can't be broken. Also, in contrast to Taylor, it's important to note that Rodgers does a great job keeping his eyes downfield while scrambling and then resetting his feet to throw. Taylor is a great runner, but based on what we've seen in the playoffs so far this year, that doesn't seem to be an ingredient for winning an NFL championship.

The questions comes down to, who-the-fuck-do-you replace Taylor with? I guess you can continue drafting quarterbacks and hope you get it right. After all, didn't we miss on Roethlisberger by one pick? And Brady was a sixth round pick, while Rodgers came off the board near the end of round one. Russell Wilson, another guy who's won a championship, was a third-round pick and neither Derek Carr or Dak Prescott, two emerging star quarterbacks, was a first-round pick. So, there is apparently talent out there to be had.

Of course, your scouting department has to find it, and then your coaches have to develop it, and the Bills, although they have done a  nice job developing Tryod, haven't proven capable of putting those two things together since the great Jim Kelly pick of more than 30 years ago.

I guess for now, it seems the Bills are fucked. But things change in the Not for Long League, and at some point, we have to hit gold, don't we? Chad Kelly anyone?
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Bills vs. Colts 2016 Opening Day

Yes, we are ready to get started with another Buffalo Bills season. I have been a Bills fan now for more than 40 years and the season has ended in disappointment probably 37 of those years. Lately, for at least the last 10 years, I've gone things with a fairly pessimistic attitude, so I was actually kind of happy with last year's 9-7 record, although we certainly had a chance to do better.

This year, for the first time in awhile, I'm going in with no idea what to expect. We have a new coach, Rex Ryan, who has certainly enjoyed some success in the past, but some failure as well. We have a quarterback who has been in the league for four years as a back-up, but has only thrown 35 regular season passes. He's also relatively short for an NFL signal caller and even though he completed almost 60% of his passes his senior year in college, has the reputation of really not being very accurate. We are definitely going to learn a lot about Tyrod Taylor in the upcoming weeks.

Ideally, his impact should be somewhat minimized by the presence of our great defense and a running game that the Bills have invested heavily in, not necessarily through the trade of Kiko Alonso for LeSean McCoy, but by ludicrously signing McCoy (who many feel may already be past his prime) to a hefty five-year contract extension. Whatever. It should have little affect on the team this year unless of course the insane cutting of Fred Jackson has something to do with Shady's contract.


Offensive questions aside, the Bills return almost all their starters from a defense that last year was fairly highly regarded by almost all measures. Fourth in points allowed, only 16 TD passes given up, second in net yards allowed passing - all good stuff. And none of the key players are really old, although Kyle Williams is on the wrong side of 30. We did, of course, change defensive coaches, as D is Rex Ryan's specialty and there wasn't any more room in town for Jim Schwartz, who by all accounts did an excellent job. But this should not prove to be a downgrade. We also lost Brandon Spikes, who was a key run stopper, so we'll see how that affects us. Biggest worry, however, is that Leodis McKelvin, who we were counting on to start at cornerback is out for at least the first six weeks of the season after taking a longer than expected to recover from an ankle injury suffered late last year. Ryan's defensive schemes reportedly put a lot of pressure on cornerbacks (Darrell Revis earned his initial NFL bones under Ryan's tutelage) and now we're stuck with rookie second-round pick Ronald Darby starting. Darby has been very up-and-down during the preseason.

All this leads to a very mysterious match-up (at least from my vantage point) today vs. the Colts. On the plus side, the game is at home, but aside from that I really don't know what to expect. Will our vaunted pass defense hold up against last year's number one passing attack? Will we be able to move the ball vs. a defense that was fairly mediocre last year before shutting down the Broncos in the playoffs. (Funny side note: I was reading an article on Peyton Manning the other day that blamed a "physical game" against the Bills in Week 14 for starting his downfall last year with culminated with that Colts' win. So, maybe the Colts owe us one in a karmatic sense.)

The pick: All that aside, going by the paper (which is really all I got except for one visit to the Bills training camp and seeing maybe a couple/three quarters worth of pre-season Bills play) I've got to go Colts 24, Bills 19. From a fan's standpoint, hopefully I'm wrong.

Nostalgia, the NFL, and One Hundred Years of Solitude

Just finished re-reading Gabriel Garcia Marquez's masterpiece, One Hundred Years of Solitude. It tells the story of the Buendia family and the rise and fall of Macondo the town founded by the patriarch and matriarch of the family. It goes through several generations and ends pretty much with the last generation being wiped out by their affection for sex and nostalgia - two of my favorite vices by the way.

There is some fascinating stuff in the there about time and how it is not linear, but how everything happens at once - but I want to focus on the nostalgia part a bit. As I mentioned previously, I recently started thinking a lot about the 1970s NFL and even did some rudimentary research into the success rates of the six teams that really dominated the era. Why is the 1970s NFL so important to me? The more I think about it, it has to be nostalgia.

The 1970s were when I was coming of age as a child and the NFL seemed so great, so exciting. Really, all sports did to me, but the NFL was probably the most accessible and the most exciting. I realize a lot of bad things came of that time, like injuries to underpaid players who now can't afford proper medical care or who have died due to complications from the era. That said, I can't help but remembering the games with fondness. (This is also mentioned by Kevin Cook in his excellent book The Last Headbangers, which is about football in that era.)

So, here's a quote from One Hundred Years of Solitude, which I think sums up the power of nostalgia and why I can't help but think of the 1970s NFL as a great thing, when a lot of evidence points to the contrary. Aureliano, the last surviving Buendia, is deciphering parchments which foretell the destruction of the town. "Then the wind began, warm, incipient, full of voices from the past, the murmurs of ancient geraniums, sighs of disenchantment that proceeded the most tenacious nostalgia."

Yes, there are certainly "sighs of disenchantment" around the 1970s NFL, but the tenacity of the nostalgia is so great, that I can't resist it. More on this later.

Freddie B and the 1970s Raiders

I recently started doing some research on the NFL in the 1970s - when I first became of fan of the league. For a point of reference (and I've probably mentioned it before), the first Super Bowl I ever watched was Super Bowl VII, when the Dolphins completed their undefeated season by beating the favored Redskins - yes, there apparently was still a bias for the NFC over the AFC in those days. Coincidentally, my younger son, Andrew, who is 8, recorded a recent airing of an NFL Films replay of a Dolphins-Raiders playoff game from 1974 - a classic known as the "Sea of Hands" game. I remember watching this game with my grandfather and I remember the classic last play for which the game is named (watch the video in the link).

The NFL Films replay is part of its "Greatest Games ever Played" series and was apparently made only a few years ago, as footage of the game was inadvertently lost for several years. The production includes a great piece on Erie native and Hall of Fame wide receiver Fred Biletnikoff. Biletnikoff had a great game including a TD catch that Ken Stabler called the greatest catch he saw in 15 years of playing. The segment on Biletnikoff includes a discussion Freddie's personality. Stabler said Fred was so high strung that if you walked up behind him and yelled, he'd jump up on the ceiling  like cat on all fours, or something like that. Raiders linebacker Phil Villapiano said that Fred "didn't take care of himself," or something along those lines and talked about Fred throwing up before games.

I found Villapiano's comments somewhat ironic, based on something I had read recently about Villpiano. Check out this excerpt from Kevin Cook's The Last Headbangers:  NFL Football in the Rowdy, Reckless '70's. Yes, that's Villapiano, banging he head against the wall so it swells up and fits better in his "piece of junk" plastic helmet. There is also a play in that Sea of Hands game where Stabler goes back to pass with his chinstrap undone. Cook does a good job (and I've only read part of the free sample of the book from Amazon so far) saying he does not promote the behavior that led to head injuries and lawsuits later on involving NFL players, but is merely reporting on the play that helped make the NFL the multi-billion dollar conglomerate that it is today. I just thought that it was ironic the Villapiano (who apparently came out okay as he is some sort of logistics executive) was talking about what a bad job Freddie did taking care of himself, when, well, you know, he was purposely giving himself concussions. They really don't make them like that anymore.

By the way, from what I've heard, Fred, who is 72, is doing great.

Bills Building a 1970's-Style Powerhouse; Can it Work in Today's NFL?

Where to start here. Remember the '70s, especially the early part of the decade? Well, unless you are as old as me you probably don't. But, let's me put it this way:

• In 1973, the Bills threw 4 touchdown passes all year -and finished 9-5.
• The 1974, Steelers started three different quarterbacks, who combined to throw 12 TDs, and they won the Super Bowl, a game in which the Steelers threw for less than 100 yards. 
• The 1970 and 1971 Vikings went a combined 23-5 and didn't have a quarterback throw more than 7 TDs in a single season. 
• Pat Haden started a number of games for a very successful Rams team. 
• Deiter Brock went 11-4 as a starter for the 1985 Rams, who were a bit of a throwback even then. 
• Did you know that in the Super Bowl following the 1973 season, Hall of Fame QB Bob Griese threw 7 passes in a winning effort -and he had a Hall of Fame receiver in Paul Warfield?

What did all these teams have in common? They had good defense and could run the ball. Some of them, like the Steelers, Vikings, and Rams, had great defenses. Some of them, like '73 Bills and '85 Rams had prolific running games - with starting tailbacks, O.J. Simpson and Eric Dickerson each going for over 2,000 yards and breaking the league rushing record at the time. Some, like the Dolphins, had great running games and a great defense. But, the bottom line is that this seems to the the model the 2015 Bills are going for. Can it work in the modern NFL, when 9 QBs threw for 30 TDs or more last year? Compare that to 1972 when Billy Kilmer and Joe Namath led the league with 19 TD passes each.

Rex Ryan thinks it can. His first year with the Jets, when the team went to the AFC Championship game, they led the league in rushing and defense, while finishing near the bottom in passing with rookie Mark Sanchez throwing an anemic 12 TD passes. The next, when they also went to the championship game (and nearly came back to surprise the Steelers) they had a similar spread, although not quite as drastic. After that the running game slipped a little, the defense slipped and little, and culminating with last year's disaster, the Jets passing game slipped a lot, and Ryan was gone.

Coming into Buffalo, Ryan inherits a good-to-great defense and is being counted on to at least maintain it. On offense, we have no QB to speak of and a pretty bad O-Line. The receivers and the running backs seemed to okay to me, but a lot of people thought we were short on backs too. So, Ryan brings in Greg Roman, a purported running game guru to guide the offense. First thing we do is trade for the guy who was the number one fantasy football pick in most drafts last year. And he disappointed, but still gained 1,300 yards. Does he have anything left in the tank? Who knows, but with the success an aging Frank Gore had in Roman's system, maybe it can work.

Then we trade for Matt Cassel. People like to cite Matt Cassel's one great year with Patriots and call him a lucky stiff cuz he was in a good system with Randy Moss and Wes Welker as his receivers. But, in 2010 he led the Chiefs to a 10-5 record and threw 27 TD passes - 15 of them to Dwayne Bowe. His second leading receiver was Tony Moeaki. Also, the Chiefs led the league in rushing.

So, it comes down to this, to be successful in 2015 the Bills are obviously planning to run the ball. The only thing missing now is an offensive line - probably not a minor detail. Well, we already signed Richie Incognito, who I think has a reputation as a pretty fair run blocker. Next domino to fall into place almost has to Mike Iupati, former All-Pro guard under Roman in SF. Then, we might start to have something here....as Rex likes to say "Ground and Pound," with McCoy and Freddie mixed in with some play-action fakes and deep to Watkins, all complemented by a stellar D that lets our offense be patient and grind it out.

If you don't believe this 1970's style of play can work in today's NFL, just check out the stats for the 2011 San Francisco 49ers: top 5 defense, ground control offense, 13-3, narrow loss in NFC championship game.

Oh yeah, but let's wait until we sign Iupati or make some other upgrade to the O-Line before we get too excited. But, it least I can see some light....

Saulting a Past KC Sports Hero

After last night's San Francisco thrashing of the Royals in the opening game of the World Series Dr. D sent to a text asking where the great Amos Otis was when you need him. This launched a bit of a volley of names like Paul Splittorff and Dan Quisenberry who were part of some great Royals teams in the 70s and 80s - before their well-documented 20-plus year playoff drought.

This brought my mind around to other formerly great and someone obscure Kansas City sports stars of the past and one guy in particular, Ed Podolak:

I don't know what else to say about the ex-Chiefs running back that this picture can't. He played for the Chiefs for 9 years, '69-77, so he was there for my coming of age as a football fan. Problem was that while I remember him being regarded as good, I never really thought he was. He best year was probably 1973, one of my favorite years as it's when my sports memories basically start, as Ed had more than 1,100 yards from scrimmage that year and also returned punts. He finished his career with a strong season in 1977, but the problem was that Chiefs mostly sucked from 1973 through 1977, after being a powerhouse early in Podolak's career. So I remember him as like the best (at least the most focal) player on some pretty bad teams. Previous to that he had had a playoff game vs. Miami where he accounted for more than 300 total yards.

But look at him. Is it any wonder that if you Google his name, you get a link to a story titled "Is Ed Podolak the most underappreciated Iowa football icon?" Basically, he's a white halfback who wore number 14 in a day and age when the top halfbacks were the likes of O.J. Simpson, Franco Harris, and Walter Payton - all shifty fast black dudes with cool names who wore numbers in the '30s? Ed Podolak, well, there's this: 

That's right, check out that 'stache. I just want to finish by saying, that like the Iowa football program, Ed, I too, as a youngster ignorant to the nuances of the game, probably underappreciated your abilities on the football field. Nice work and great career.

Patriots Way Smarter than Bills

The Bills have now lost to the Patriots 6 times in a row and 21 out of the last 22 times the two teams have played over the last decade or so. Pretty incredible. Of course, during this time, the Patriots have had one coach and one quarterback. The Bills, by contrast, have had at least four coaches (depending if you count Perry Fewell, who was an interim) and started at least 7 quarterbacks, and probably more.

Here's an interesting article I came across that gives you an idea of why divisional games are often so weird and hard to predict. It's about the Eagles coming up with a method for countering a Giants scheme that the G-Men had come up with for attacking the Eagles inside zone blocking scheme. Basically, the point I'm trying to make is that divisional rivals play each other so often that they invest a lot in strategies to beat each other. And the bottom line is that Brady and Belichick are better strategists that whoever the Bills are throwing at them.

Yesterday's game was a prime example. The score at halftime was 13-7, although it should have been 7-7 if not for some horrible in-game strategy by Bills coach Doug Marrone at the end of the half. And the Patriots' 7 was mostly the result of another bad Kyle Orton interception. In the first half, Brady completed 12-of-20 passes for just 88 yards. Our defense was doing really well.

Then, my friend Matt, who I'm watching the game with, utters the fateful worlds, "I wonder what kind of adjustments the Bills will make on halftime." After which, we look at each other and both laugh knowingly. "It's the Patriots who will likely make the proper adjustments," we said almost simultaneously.

Yes, we are both long-time Bills fans and Brady's second-half stats proved how correct we were. 15-of-17 for 273 yards and 3 TDs. Game over. Another loss for the Bills.

Bills, and Baseball Champtionship Series Predictions

Quite a bit to catch up on. Had a very busy week at my day job, with a newsletter deadline that I completed earlier in the day. Hurrah!

Okay, so I was wrong on three out of my four Divisional Series predictions, which pretty  much shoots my credibility to hell after I went two-for-two in the Wild Card games. Funny thing about the Wild Card round is that all four of the lower-seeded teams won. Cards-Dodgers was riveting action and I expect the same out of Cards-Giants - two great teams with great fan bases. Orioles-Royals I'm not quite as excited about - although a business colleague/friend of mine from Baltimore called today to let me know one of his best friends, Boog Powell, is throwing out the first pitch in the opener, so that's pretty cool.

In the ALCS, I'm taking the Orioles, just because from what I've seen of them this year they have been awesome and I've seen less awesomeness (maybe it just has to do with volume - as the Orioles beat up on the Yankees pretty good) from the Royals. In the NLCS, I like the Cardinals. I really thought the Dodgers had a better squad, but the Cards totally found ways to beat them - who were also being very poorly managed (at least on a strategic level) by Donnie Baseball. Even though the Giants are great at finding ways to win too, I think the Cardinals have more talent  (plus they are great at to find ways to win), so that gives them the advantage.

Now, to the Bills who match up with their nemesis/rival Patriots who are coming off a stomping of Cincinnati. This is actually a pretty good match-up for the Bills, with their strong defensive line against the Patriots relatively weak o-line. Plus, against the Chiefs at least, the Patriots could not stop the run and that is our strong point. That said, they have Tom Brady playing quarterback and we have Kyle Orton.
 
I really want to pick the Bills in this one, because we're playing at home and are going to have an emotional lift with the new ownership presiding over its first game. Also, the Patriots aside from last week, have kind of sucked this year. That said, the Patriots offense looked really good against the Bengals, with several quick strike throws that - if they are able to complete those against the Bills and our mediocre secondary - will neutralize our rush, and we'll be sunk.

Also, I fully expect Belichick to come up with a defensive scheme that will put the game in Orton's hands, and with Revis set to cover Watkins, that may be a tough order. Then again, Stevie always had success against Revis, why can't Watkins? (Seriously, if you have thoughts on this please let me know and maybe I'll change my pick). I'm going to go for it and pick the Bills by a field goal - go Dan Carpenter!.

Also, the Bills-Pats game is being aired on Fox this week, as part of something called the "cross-flex plan," part of which is designed "to to bring potentially under-distributed games to wider audiences." This is great new for Bills fans in Erie, as WSEE/CBS is carrying the Browns-Steelers game at 1 p.m. (as well they should be based on rooting interests in the area). But, according to this map at least, Erie's Fox 66 will be carrying the Bills-Patriots game. Once again, Hurrah!

Thanks for the Win Lions

The old saying is that beauty is in the eye of the beholder, and I'm fairly certain Bills' win today over the Lions was pretty enough for Doug  Marrone and his staff. I'll start out by saying that the Bills defense certainly played beautifully. I mean it gave up one offensive touchdown, 263 net yards, 13 first downs, had six sacks. (NFL.com recap). That said, Lions seemed lost on offense without Calvin Johnson, who was injured and not playing at 100% and then (to the Bills D's credit) got tatooed by Leodis McKelvin and was knocked out of the game completely after one short catch. Also, the Lions kicker, I don't remember his names except that I tweeted @RalphsGrill "Worst Kicker Ever," was 0-for-3 on field goals - and missing the last one put the Bills in field position to enable them to win the game in the final minute/seconds.

On offense, Watkins was a monster with 7 catches for 87 years, several being fairly good grabs with his apparently giant hands. He also, as is typical of his play, seemed to be open quite often. Freddie, was Freddie, with several tough outstanding plays. His will alone helps carry the team. Then there was Orton. To his credit, he wasn't as bad as I feared he would be. He got hit hard several times, but took only two sacks. Mainly he stood in the pocket and looked increasingly comfortable back there as the game went on. He's not prime Brett Favre, but he certainly throws the ball better than E.J. does. That spiral to Goodwin down the sideline to set up our TD and was probably the difference in the game - well, that and the Detroit kicker. Orton also at least gave Watkins a chance to catch several balls, by putting them in the vicinity of his body and letting him snare them.

Was this what Marrone had in mind when he decided to start Orton? Well, I'm sure somewhat, but really the Lions played horribly and allowed us to win. I guess Manuel could have screwed it up, but the win was kind of a gift. That said, Orton and the offense surely looked better in the second half, so maybe there is some hope.

Oh yes, and Dan Carpenter is great. (True story, you can believe it or not, but my kids are witnesses. Before Lions kicker attempted his ill fated final kick, I said, "Bills just won the game. He will miss, Orton will throw one pass to Watkins, we'll call time out and Carpenter will hit a 60-yarder." Almost exactly what happened. So, that was cool....) I did get my pregame prediction wrong and I'll gladly accept the L. Next week at home vs. the Patriots. I'll wait on my pick to see how the Pats fare tonight vs. Bengals.

J.J. Watt Wrecks Bills

There's a reason this guy is like one of the highest paid defensive players ever. He murdered the Bills yesterday. He was in the backfield all day, and I think he read he had something like nine quarterback hits. So, Manuel was on his ass a lot yesterday, but not sure that is an excuse for how badly he played. He did of course, throw the 80-yard pick-six to Watt the turned the game around and pretty must cost the Bills the win. That was a great play by Watt, but we all know he does those things, and Manuel kind of lofted it right to him. Of course, Manuel pretty much lofts everything - his lack of a fastball is killing us.

Yesterday, Manuel was 21-of-44 with two costly interceptions. Ex-Bill Ryan Fitzpatrick was any better on the other side, but he didn't need to be, as the Texans defense was pretty much able to secure the win. Then there was that play late in the fourth quarter when the Bills defensive player, linebacker Keith Rivers got the blame from the TV announcers, didn't jump on the Texans WR and it cost the Bills probably two minutes of clock time because the Texans guy was able to roll for a first down. What was that?

That said, did it really matter? Bills were putting together a nice drive near end, until Manuel threw a jump ball in the wrong spot and it was game over. I said earlier in the season, we kind of know what Manuel is. He's a big guy who can throw long floaters - and seems like a good dude. Question remains, is that enough to win in the NFL? Didn't look like it yesterday. Maybe he will get better - or maybe he doesn't have the tools. Marrone seems to have faith in him.

Next week we are at the Lions. Don't know a lot about the Lions, except that they have strong defensive line. This should be enough to stop the Bills run game and send us to our third loss in a row.

Finally, Bills-Chargers Review and Jeter

Sorry, got caught up on a road trip for work, to Birmingham, AL, and then some work-related writing and never got around to updating the blog with my weekly Bills review and update. Well, here it is: Bills sucked. Chargers tromped (yes, that's a word) them. I'll skip the details, but it was pretty much exactly how I projected it to play out. Bills secondary was overmatched by Rivers, and Manuel, well was just overmatched.

Coming out of the game, however, there is one question I'd like to see answered: Are the Bills that bad (the game was not as close as the 22-10 final indicated)? Or are the Chargers that good (they were after all coming off a victory over the World Champion Seahawks.) From the Bills' perspective I expect a lot to be answered this Sunday in Houston. Like the Bills, the Texans are 2-1 and coming off a bad loss. Of course the Texans are playing at home and have J.J. Watt. Then again, they also have Ryan Fitzpatrick.

I was really hoping this was going to be the week in which the Bills got some measure of revenge on Fitz for taking all that money from us and then mostly proceeding to stink - while actually playing pretty good before the contract. But that plan has been foiled I think by Fitzpatrick stinking up the joint last week vs. the Giants. Now the Texans truly know how bad he can be and will certainly take the game out of his hands. As a result, I think the Texans will win. And yes, I still think the Bills are headed for 5-11. Maybe a win this week will change my mind, but I've made my prediction and fully expect to go 4-0 on the season.

As for Jeter last night, that was remarkable. The way it ended reminded me of a Broadway play and the fact that the game was staged in New York made it seem all the more surreal. Congrats on a great career Mr. Jeter.

Oh yes, and how about ESPN suspending one of my favorite writers Bill Simmons for calling Roger Goodell a liar? What's up with that? Sounds like ESPN is pandering to, and being intimidated by the NFL - which is of course what Goodell wants it to. He's nothing but a bully and now ESPN has fallen prey to his tactics. I hope Simmons quits and starts his own gig.

Ray Rice vs. Adrian Peterson

The fundamental difference in the two cases (as I see it):

If a year ago, you asked Ray Rice if knocking out his fiancee in an elevator was wrong, he would say, yes, it would be. If you asked A.P. if giving his kid a (albeit severer) "whuppin'" was wrong, he would have likely said "no."

The Legend and Legacy of Cookie Gilchrist

 Goes something like this - Cookie was an oversized personality. According to his obit (he died in 2011), "When he was playing in the Canadian Football League in the 1950s, Gilchrist owned a company that installed industrial lighting and trumpeted it with trucks emblazoned “Lookie, Lookie, Here Comes Cookie.”

Cookie also:

• Was listed at 6'3", 250 lbs, and barely wore any pads when he played
• Played fullback and kicker in this rookie season for the Bills and reportedly wanted to be paid two players' salaries because of this.
• Also played on defense (as well as his two aforementioned positions) while playing in Canada. 
• Was the first 1,000-yard rusher in AFL history and ran for more than 950 yards four years in a row
• Reportedly took tons of speed when he played
• Showered during halftime of games
• In a division clinching win over the Patriots in 1964, he ran over a Patriots safety, then walked up to a defensive end and said "You're next." Every Bill in a 1964 highlight video I saw seems to recount this story.

Did Gilchrist like playing in Buffalo? I'm not sure. He reportedly compared it to slavery. He had been very happily playing for Toronto in the CFL, in a city he loved (apparently for its lack of racial prejudice), when the Bills purchased his contract. He clashed with Bills coach Lou Saban and was even kicked off the team once for insubordination (refusing to enter a game) but the players begged, and he apologized, and Cookie was let back on the team. However, at the end of 1964, the Bills traded him to the Broncos. It didn't help that he was known to bellyache about his salary, which turns out to have been pretty prophetic, seeing how the Bills were recently sold for $1.4B dollars - so Cookie in retrospect, was probably worth significantly more (in the long run) than he was being paid at the time. After all, he was one of the pillars on which the AFL was built.

Think about it. AFL owners each invested a  $25,000 franchise fee, plus expenses, to create teams that are now (some 50-plus years later) all apparently worth well over $1B. That's a great ROI.. And yes, television helped, but the players still had to put on a show, and Cookie was instrumental in that show.

I mean, how many leagues have since tried to emulate what the AFL did and force a merger with a more established league to gain all the benefits (including television contracts) associated with it? I think the AFL was by far the most successful at this - although the ABA and WHL certainly had some success - but football is football and I don't think any of the AFL franchises folded, like they did in those other rival leagues. There have even been two failed football leagues, the WFL and the USFL since the AFL-NFL merger.

Yes, Wilson took some risks and ponied up significant cash - he even loaned money to help keep other franchises afloat, so he deserves his returns, I guess. But, remember, guys like Cookie helped establish the AFL as a viable competitor to the NFL, which eventually forced the merger. According to one retrospective, "Cornerback Booker Edgerson, a former Bills teammate, said Gilchrist was 'just as good and maybe even better' than Jim Brown. 'He and Jim had the same outstanding abilities to play the game.’"


And Cookie had no easy row to hoe. After starring in high school in the Pittsburgh area, Cookie was reportedly told by Paul Brown to skip college and try out for the Browns. Unfortunately, 18-year-olds were not allowed to play in the NFL at the time (apparently this fact had escaped Brown) so Cookie was sent away with his college eligibility burned. That is how he ended up in Canada for several years prior to his being "bought"  by the Bills.

Gilchrist is somewhat notorious for being excluded from the Bills' Wall of Fame, apparently over his frequent contract disputes. But, based on the recent sale price of the Bills, I'm here to say Cookie was right! He clearly deserved more money, and now that the team has been sold from the ownership which had the dispute with him, please give the man his due honor! Ring him up!

Thanks.

Ray Rice, Donald Sterling & The Power of Video

I was at a conference last week where one of the topics was auto-understanding of video - and how we can use info captured from video to help complete transactions. For example, let's say you have something wrong with your car and instead of taking it to the mechanic, you are able to open up your hood, take a video of everything running, and have some sort of auto-analysis done that can determine what you need to do. You are then directed to Web sites where you can order the parts....This may be somewhat far fetched - but actual real world use cases include automatically analyzing face taken on video at airports for matches against dangerous persons databases.

The reason that transaction part of the equation is important is because I was at a document management conference, which mainly discusses better handling the documents used in transactions. It's my view that as smartphones and their cameras continue to improve, we will begin to rely more on their abilities, instead of documents, to complete transactions. Typing text into an app is one thing, but being able to take a picture or video and submit that is even easier and more powerful.

Why is that? Video is more powerful than words in today's society. Let's take the cases of Ray Rice and Donald Sterling. From this ESPN story on the Rice incident: "The source said that Rice admitted to the Ravens from the start that he was guilty of striking Janay and, for the most part, accurately described what they eventually saw on the video. But the brutality of the assault when seen on the security video made a different impression."

So, here's the deal:

• Story comes out about Rice beating up girlfriend/fiancee. 
• Rice gets suspended for two games.
• People get up in arms and NFL commissioner Roger Goodell stiffens NFL's domestic abuse policy
• But nothing more happens to Rice
• Video comes out showing what Rice admitted to
• Rice's team (Baltimore Ravens) terminate his contract and league suspends him indefinitely

In my opinion this is very similar to what happened with Clippers owner Donald Sterling, when the tape came out with him making all those racist comments to his ex-girlfriend. As far back as 2006, Bomani Jones wrote this article for ESPN's now defunct Page 2, entitled "Sterling's Racism Should be News." Yet, in spite of this, big name athletes and Coach Doc Rivers signed with the Clippers. Then, they acted all surprised when the audio recording (sorry, no one uses tape anymore, do they?) came out this spring. Apparently, nobody in the mass market pays attention to print anymore!

Which brings me back to my point about multi-media being so much more powerful than text. Armed with today's and tomorrow smartphone and other computing equipment, I fully expect the upcoming generation to marginalize textual communication in favor of multi-media stuff. Although, quick quips and meta data will keep text alive as a complementary form of communication!

At Least You're not a Bills Fan

From Bill Barnwell's daily update (of the current NFL free agent frenzy) on Grantland:

"Say a word for the Bills, who have to spend about $30 million or so to hit the salary floor by the end of this season. They started their arduous trek to the basement by giving 30-year-old cornerback Drayton Florence a three-year deal worth $15 million. They're sort of like the Panthers, but they don't even have the ability to woo most of their own free agents into re-signing for ghastly sums of money. Expect Donte Whitner to follow Paul Posluszny out the door. Some mid-tier free agents with a high tolerance for cold weather are about to become very happy people."

Vikings sign McNabb

Since, I see Dr. D. is reading the blog, I thought I'd solicit his thoughts on his Vikings latest veteran QB signing. While Donovan McNabb is probably a better guy than Brett Favre (although T.O. might not think so), I really don't know if you are going to be able to capture the same magic that Favre did with the Vikings a couple years ago. McNabb was kind of a washout with the Redskins last year - although he did have several good to great years with the Eagles. The Eagles, of course, seem like they can put anyone under center and make them a good QB - A.J. Feely, Kevin Kolb, and Michael Vick have also enjoyed success - albeit in shorter runs than McNabb - under Andy Reid at Philly.

What tools does Minnesota have to help McNabb succeed? Well, they just lost Sidney Rice as a free agent, and most people considered him to be their best receiver. I guess you still have Percy Harvin, who looks like he can ball a little. And T.O., Ochocinco, and Moss are all out there as free agents...I think it might be a long year for McNabb. (He does have A.P. to hand off too at least.)

McNabb's signing fits with a long-time Vikings tradition of utilizing veteran QBs vs. developing their own talent. In order, there has been Joe Kapp (from the CFL), Fran Tarkenton (started with the Vikes, but then traded to Giants before being brought back), Tommy Kramer (their own guy), the Denny Green era, which brough Jim McMahan, Warren Moon, Randall Cunningham and Jeff George into town, Dante Culpepper (their own guy), Favre and now McNabb. What does this say?