Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Bills in Danger of Alienating Fans

First they trade Kiko Alonso, then rumors pop up that Fred Jackson could be following him out of town? Are you  kidding me? These are probably Bills' fans two favorite players. Running them out of town smacks of hubris. Sure, Rex wants to bring his own people, but at what cost to fan loyalty? I supposed if the Bills win, everyone will forget, but we've always thought Kiko and Freddie were the type of guys you win with!

I hate to say it, but the Bills recent slew of transactions is reminding me of when Pegula took over the Sabres a few years back and immediately starting "upgrading" things. We all know how this turned out - and if you don't, suffice to say the Sabres have the worst record in the NHL right now (and did last year) and are currently the leaders in the Connor McDavid derby. So, there's that. 

I'm not a big fan of the new McCoy contract - too much money for a running back, and now that Mike Iupati has reportedly signed with the Cardinals, it seems questionable that we're going to get the offensive line help that we need for Shady to be truly effective. Yes, I like the Hughes re-signing, and don't disagree with the decision to let Searcy leave. But, I really didn't quite understand the interest in Bilal Powell, who has apparently decided to stay with the Jets. Powell is a running back and special teams player - a roll I thought was filled by Boobie Dixon quite well last year, and with McCoy just brought in and Jackson already on the roster (not to mention Bryce Brown - who I thought was pretty good when he played last year, which admittedly wasn't much), it seems we were focusing way to much on the RB position, while the OL needs desperately to be addressed. Plus, it seemed to be squeezing out Freddie, which you would think would be a big no-no for anyone familiar with the Bills and how much he has done for the team over the past five-plus years.

Then, there is a visit by Percy Harvin? Could you imagine of the Bills let Freddie leave and replaced him on roster with Harvin? Could that possibly be good from a karma/morale standpoint?

I think the Bills are messing with fire here and these moves could end up extending our playoff drought another 5 years, as we still need some talent on OL, long-tern contracts are loading up, and we're messin with chemistry/team make-up stuff. Hopefully Ryan doesn't end up leaving behind a steaming pile like what they have in New York right now, and Pegula doesn't end up cleaning up another mess.

Wednesday, March 04, 2015

Bills Building a 1970's-Style Powerhouse; Can it Work in Today's NFL?

Where to start here. Remember the '70s, especially the early part of the decade? Well, unless you are as old as me you probably don't. But, let's me put it this way:

  • In 1973, the Bills threw 4 touchdown passes all year -and finished 9-5.
  • The 1974, Steelers started three different quarterbacks, who combined to throw 12 TDs, and they won the Super Bowl, a game in which the Steelers threw for less than 100 yards. 
  • The 1970 and 1971 Vikings went a combined 23-5 and didn't have a quarterback throw more than 7 TDs in a single season. 
  • Pat Haden started a number of games for a very successful Rams team. 
  • Deiter Brock went 11-4 as a starter for the 1985 Rams, who were a bit of a throwback even then. 
  • Did you know that in the Super Bowl following the 1973 season, Hall of Fame QB Bob Griese threw 7 passes in a winning effort -and he had a Hall of Fame receiver in Paul Warfield?

What did all these teams have in common? They had good defense and could run the ball. Some of them, like the Steelers, Vikings, and Rams, had great defenses. Some of them, like '73 Bills and '85 Rams had prolific running games - with starting tailbacks, O.J. Simpson and Eric Dickerson each going for over 2,000 yards and breaking the league rushing record at the time. Some, like the Dolphins, had great running games and a great defense. But, the bottom line is that this seems to the the model the 2015 Bills are going for. Can it work in the modern NFL, when 9 QBs threw for 30 TDs or more last year? Compare that to 1972 when Billy Kilmer and Joe Namath led the league with 19 TD passes each.

Rex Ryan thinks it can. His first year with the Jets, when the team went to the AFC Championship game, they led the league in rushing and defense, while finishing near the bottom in passing with rookie Mark Sanchez throwing an anemic 12 TD passes. The next, when they also went to the championship game (and nearly came back to surprise the Steelers) they had a similar spread, although not quite as drastic. After that the running game slipped a little, the defense slipped and little, and culminating with last year's disaster, the Jets passing game slipped a lot, and Ryan was gone.

Coming into Buffalo, Ryan inherits a good-to-great defense and is being counted on to at least maintain it. On offense, we have no QB to speak of and a pretty bad O-Line. The receivers and the running backs seemed to okay to me, but a lot of people thought we were short on backs too. So, Ryan brings in Greg Roman, a purported running game guru to guide the offense. First thing we do is trade for the guy who was the number one fantasy football pick in most drafts last year. And he disappointed, but still gained 1,300 yards. Does he have anything left in the tank? Who knows, but with the success an aging Frank Gore had in Roman's system, maybe it can work.

Then we trade for Matt Cassel. People like to cite Matt Cassel's one great year with Patriots and call him a lucky stiff cuz he was in a good system with Randy Moss and Wes Welker as his receivers. But, in 2010 he led the Chiefs to a 10-5 record and threw 27 TD passes - 15 of them to Dwayne Bowe. His second leading receiver was Tony Moeaki. Also, the Chiefs led the league in rushing.

So, it comes down to this, to be successful in 2015 the Bills are obviously planning to run the ball. The only thing missing now is an offensive line - probably not a minor detail. Well, we already signed Richie Incognito, who I think has a reputation as a pretty fair run blocker. Next domino to fall into place almost has to Mike Iupati, former All-Pro guard under Roman in SF. Then, we might start to have something here....as Rex likes to say "Ground and Pound," with McCoy and Freddie mixed in with some play-action fakes and deep to Watkins, all complemented by a stellar D that lets our offense be patient and grind it out.

If you don't believe this 1970's style of play can work in today's NFL, just check out the stats for the 2011 San Francisco 49ers: top 5 defense, ground control offense, 13-3, narrow loss in NFC championship game.

Oh yeah, but let's wait until we sign Iupati or make some other upgrade to the O-Line before we get too excited. But, it least I can see some light....