McDermott: Genius or Madman?

Is Sean McDermott drunk with power? I have to ask this, after reading that he is considering starting Nate Peterman at QB against the Chiefs on Sunday. I think this is what Tom Mitchell was insinuating when he wrote the article calling McDermott "full of crap."

We all know McDermott's fully in charge in Buffalo after ousting Whaley and getting his own GM installed. And here's a very brief list of some of the against-the-grain moves he's made since he got here, clearly putting his stamp on the team:

1. Trading Sammy and Darby
2. Trading Dareus
3. Benching Tyrod
4. Some of OL decisions
5. Trading Ragland

I'll admit I was upset when the Bills traded Sammy, a move which looks like it might work out for the best, and looked especially that way after the Bills got off to a 5-2 start while Watkins has hardly been setting the world on fire with the Rams. But, then....well, then came the last three games, when all that talent McDermott traded away, well, maybe it would have helped the Bills, you know, not get outscored, 50-150, or whatever.

And then the Peterman thing. I mean anyone could see that after two drives at the end of a blowout loss to the Saints Peterman was clearly superior to Tryod. This despite the fact that he didn't blow anyone away at camp or during the preseason. But, McDermott had apparently seen something in Peterman at practice as the season progressed. 

But, Peterman looked awful on Sunday. There are no two ways about it. He was overmatched. He was asked to do something he was not ready to do. And then Tyrod came in, and aside from the maddening fumble (when, guess what? he held the ball too long!), he looked way better than Peterman, for almost a half a game - not two series. So, what's the question? Why is Peterman still being considered to start? After all, didn't Peterman's performance make it look like Tyrod may possibly be an All-Pro quality quarterback, getting what he has so far out of that bunch?

But, does McDermott see things this way? Apparently not. He has a vision, and apparently that vision includes Peterman, or someone like him, and not Tyrod playing quarterback. The question is, is it the vision of genius or a madman? 

I think there are many people out there who thought Belichick was mad after his stint with the Browns and some of his early lack of success with the Patriots. He has always been a great one for unpopular autocratic moves and still is, and it's worked out great for him. On the flip side, however, is Chip Kelly. I guess it comes down to this: Is McDermott the next Belichick of the next Kelly (not Jim)?

It's only weird if it doesn't work

True story...where do I start? Saturday was a beautiful day so I pulled my TV outside to watch the Yankees game. It was a 3 pm start. My neighbor Mike, who I didn't realize was Yankees fan, sees me and comes over to watch the game on the patio. The Yankees lose a tough one 2-1.

Tonight, the Yankees started at 5 pm. They had battled back after losing the first two games of series and were looking to even things up at 2 apiece in best of 7 A.L. Championship. The game is scoreless through 5 when Mike shows up. "You're wife told me you were watching the game. "
Now I love Mike, he's as good a neighbor as a neighbor can be....but as soon as he got there, Sonny Gray walked the leadoff batter. Then the catcher's interference. Then we started making jokes/comments about Mike being a jinx. Then the Astros scored three runs, then another in the top of the 7th. Then Mike left with me practically nudging him out the door.
Then Judge led off the next inning with a 450 foot HR. Then Yankees rallied for 5 more and won 6-4.
I found Mike in his garage cutting some wood for a job in the morning. He doesn't get the cable channel the game was on. I handed him a beer I happened to have in my fridge called Jinx and invited him over tomorrow but only until the 7th. Friendship is nice but the Yankees winning...
Well, I'm trying to keep both in tact.

Watkins Trade a Misread

Yes, there is a lot of talk about how this Sammy Watkins, and the Ronald Darby trade for that matter, help set up the Bills for success in the future. But, what about this year? The now matters in football, especially when there are only 16 games in a year.

Here's an interesting/great question that was brought up in this excellent piece by the Ringer's Chris Ryan? Is it better to suck for a few years so you can really contend for a title, or just be good consistently, but never great. I think in some cities like New York, Los Angeles, Boston, and other large markets where there are other things to do, it might be okay to suck for a few years with the aim of a championship. But in Bill Country, we ain't got much else. I mean, the Bills represent our autumn/winter sports season (unless the Sabres finally turn it around I guess) and forfeiting a whole season with the goal of striking in rich in the draft and being good a few years down the road, I don't think that cuts it with the Bills fan base.

Here's the thing: Sammy Watkins may not have been consistent due to injuries - but he is a stud. I would pay to watch him play. How many other players on the Bills can you say that about? LeSean McCoy? That's about it I think, and he is likely going to miss at least a couple games - based on his injury history.

I just get the feeling the Bills' current management is playing big city ball in a small city town and it's not going to work. Where I live there is a team equidistant called the Browns and I at least have always felt fortunate that I am not one of their fans (most people around here like the Steelers and are lucky for that). But, now I feel like we have adopted the Browns' game plan. Maybe in a couple-three years, it will be the Bills-Browns meeting in the playoffs and I'll be ecstatic and will go back and read this and think about what a dumbass I was. But it seems more than likely, based on Bills history, that we are now guaranteed to suck this year and me be able to rebuild back to mediocrity before it all falls apart again. Do I need to say that Sammy Watkins was stud again? And Darby wasn't bad either. And Jordan Matthews is hurt...

Erie's Role in Micracle on Ice Flag Story

So, I think this is what happened: Swedish goalie Pelle Lindbergh and USA goalie Jim Craig met and became friends at the 1980 Olympics. According to the show Sport Detectives, which I watched last night on the Smithsonian Channel, the two apparently played a lot of video games in the Olympic Village in Lake Placid. After the Olympics ended, Craig, an Olympic hero, went to the Flames for the end of the 1979-80 season before playing for the Bruins in 1980-81 season. He wasn't very effective at either stop, and for the 1981-82 season, Craig found himself playing for the Bruins top minor league affiliate—the Erie Blades, in their only year competing in the AHL (a step higher than where the team had traditionally competed and had much success).

In the meantime, Lindbergh, who would go on to have mercurial success with the Philadelphia Flyers, before being tragically killed in a car crash, was toiling for the AHL's Main Mariners on his way up the latter. The story goes, at least according to Sports Detectives, that during the 1981-82 season, Lindbergh and Craig got together at the Ramada Inn bar in Erie, where Craig give Lindbergh what he thought was the iconic flag that had been draped around him after the gold medal clinching game vs. Finland:

The Sports Detective episode was about the search for that flag, and the flag the Craig gave to Lindbergh did not end up being that flag, although Craig thought it was at the time. Apparently the real flag is now up for sale.

Anyhow, it kinda floored me to hear Erie mentioned in the context of all this, first by a former Philadelphia trainer, who was at the Ramada with Lindbergh and Craig and witnessed their discussion; he also remained friends with Lindbergh and his fiance, who inherited the flag after his death. Craig, of course, did have to make some comment about the meeting in Erie like, "We were like, 'How did we end up here after the Olympics?" But, oh well.

At least I think I got the story straight. I was kinda dozing off and distracted until I heard Erie mentioned.

NFL: Truly a quarterback league

I spent the good part of the late afternoon and evening watching NFL football yesterday. Maggie wasn't too excited about it, but my youngest son, Andrew, who is 10, wasn't feeling too great and he was really looking forward to watching the games, so, being the great father that I am, I sacrificed my time and sat and watched football for seven hours.

My biggest observation - when they say the NFL is a quarterback league, the are not kidding. After Sunday's action, the four quarterbacks left include three Super Bowl Champions with seven titles among them, as well as the guy who is favored to the win the NFL MVP this year.

This does not bode well for the Bills and their pending decision on whether or not to keep Tyrod Taylor. Taylor certainly is not in the class of Brady, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, or Matty Ice, and likely never will be. He's just not a great, classic dropback quarterback like those four - although Rodgers takes it to a different level with his scrambling ability. I don't know that Taylor can even be as good as poor Alex Smith, who is now seemingly to Andy Reid in a just-not-good-enough-to-win-in-the-playoffs chain that can't be broken. Also, in contrast to Taylor, it's important to note that Rodgers does a great job keeping his eyes downfield while scrambling and then resetting his feet to throw. Taylor is a great runner, but based on what we've seen in the playoffs so far this year, that doesn't seem to be an ingredient for winning an NFL championship.

The questions comes down to, who-the-fuck-do-you replace Taylor with? I guess you can continue drafting quarterbacks and hope you get it right. After all, didn't we miss on Roethlisberger by one pick? And Brady was a sixth round pick, while Rodgers came off the board near the end of round one. Russell Wilson, another guy who's won a championship, was a third-round pick and neither Derek Carr or Dak Prescott, two emerging star quarterbacks, was a first-round pick. So, there is apparently talent out there to be had.

Of course, your scouting department has to find it, and then your coaches have to develop it, and the Bills, although they have done a  nice job developing Tryod, haven't proven capable of putting those two things together since the great Jim Kelly pick of more than 30 years ago.

I guess for now, it seems the Bills are fucked. But things change in the Not for Long League, and at some point, we have to hit gold, don't we? Chad Kelly anyone?
, 

Samsung Support, Part II

Okay, I go through all the machinations mentioned in my last post, and finally, five days after I post, a very nice woman from Samsung Executive level support contacts me and facilitates my refund. But, I still have to wait 10-15 business days before I will get an e-mail form I have to complete to enable Samsung  to process the refund directly into my account, as well as another return shipping label. So, finally, yesterday, I get a call from Samsung that tells me those items are on the way. I receive them and fill out the form to get my refund. Then I start shopping online for a new Chromebook.

This time, I decide to read some reviews first, and, of course, many of then are pretty bad, because, well, Chromebooks are inexpensive for a reason. However, I come across one where the reviewer was having the same problem I was - with the device crashing - only it was from a different vendor's device. The reviewer went on to explain how they fixed the problem by going on to Chrome as a guest, then logging in and updating the Chrome OS from there. They said the machine was running beautifully after that. I figured, WTF, why not give it a try? Doesn't it work just like they described.

So, basically, I've had a Chromebook sitting in my house for the past month that I could have been using had Samsung's support dept. been able to tell me how to fix it.

Then I did something really stupid. I proceeded to cancel my refund (not that straightforward, as you'd expect. It took talking to four different people, two calls, and two e-mails) and keep the Samsung Chromebook. Why did I do this?

1. As I mentioned, the reviews of other Chromebooks weren't that inspiring.
2. I already spent $20 on a protective case for this particular model that I wasn't going to be able to recover.
3. I already had the device in my house.

So, here goes....will keep you posted when next issue arises. Hopefully never.

Samsung Executive-Level Support - WTF?

This is silly. It's almost like double-secret probation.

So, here's the issue:
1. I bought this Samsung Chromebook from Best Buy.
2. It was a replacement for this a previous generation Samsung model, which worked great. The kids eventually fucked that one up, but we had it for like two years and everybody loved it.
3. When I went into Best Buy, they had the newer Samsung model, with better/updated specs, for the same price as the previous-gen model, which they were still selling. I said to the sales associate, "Why wouldn't I buy the newer model?" He shook his head and said he didn't know.
4. The store was out of stock of the model I wanted, so I had it shipped to my house. Received the computer in a few days, started running it, and immediately started receiving complaints that it was slower than other model.
5. Then about three weeks later, the cursor stopped working.
6. Spent about an hour on the phone with Samsung support, and tried everything including reloading OS. Nothing worked. They e-mailed me a shipping ticket. I put the computer back in its box, which thankfully I had saved, and sent it in for them to fix.
7. It was returned relatively promptly, I think within a week. Worked fine for a couple weeks and then cursor disappeared again. Called Samsung support, and they were very obliging. Skipped whole software reload thing and just sent me ticket to send computer back in.
8. It was returned in another week, except now every time I launched Chrome or another application, the computer  crashed and reset itself. Maddening.
9. I called Samsung and they sent me another return-for-support ticket. These tickets cover shipping. I just have to box up the computer and run it down to UPS store, whose clerks I am now becoming familiar with. I send my wife in this time, and UPS guy tries to sell her expensive extra packaging. I had to go in myself.
10. There is a bit of a hassle as Samsung sends me an e-mail saying they didn't receive unit. On top of that, UPS store screwed up its record keeping. This gets sorted out, and I get my unit back.
11. Problem not fixed. Everything still crashing.
12. Now things get fucked up. I'm pissed. I call and support offers to send me another ticket, if that's okay. I say, that's not okay. So they offer to escalate my case to "executive-level" support. Executive-level support will be calling me directly.
13. I don't hear from "executive-level" support for like five days, so I call back regular support. I'm told I need to be ready for call from executive support, and I shouldn't miss it. There is no number I can contact them at directly.
14. A bit later, a woman from executive level support calls me and tells me that they are considering my request for a refund or a new unit, but that they need my receipt. She gives me an e-fax number to send it to.
15. At same time, I get an e-mail requesting my receipt and one of the options for sending it is that e-fax number. I e-fax the receipt. This is Tuesday, Dec. 13. I am told that they will be back in touch.
16. By Friday, Dec. 16, I have not heard anything. I call regular support. They tell me if I don't hear from executive support in three hours to call them back.
17. I don't hear from executive support and call back and am transferred to someone in executive support. (It sounds like a regular support person except that he is breathing heavily into the phone as he talks, which sound less "executive" if anything, but what do I know?) He says the receipt has not been transferred yet from the dept. that was supposed to receive it. He then said he has escalated the case, and that someone from executive support will be calling me back later today or Monday. If not, I am supposed to call back the general support number and give them the new service ticket number-which he issues me.

On a positive note, all the people I've talked to at Samsung have been nice and accommodating. Based on my phone number, they also are automatically provided with a record of my support history. This is nice touch compared to previous customer support experiences. As for actually getting a computer that works....stay tuned!

Baseball playoff predictions, Part 1

Wild Card games:

Baltimore over Toronto
San Fran over the Mets

We'll see.

Is Sam Bradford today's Jim Plunkett?

Is anyone else on board with the Sam Bradford is the next Jim Plunkett narrative?

Does Rex Get It?

This kills me, from an ESPN report on what the big story is for all 32 NFL teams: "Ryan has already dropped hints that he wants the ball in wide receiver Sammy Watkins' hands more often." I'm not sure what good it does for him to advertise this. Also, it seems like a bit of a clueless strategy. Have you ever heard Bill Belichick, for instance, talk about basing his gameplan around the talents of a single player? I'm sure he does that, but part of professional football also has to do with planning to exploit you opponents weaknesses. Basically, I don't think you can win in today's NFL with a star-focused mentality. I think it requires more of a systematic approach - and Ryan and the Bills just fired the guy who developed their whole offensive system.

We'll see how this all works out, I did read somewhere that new OC Anthony Lynn is "highly regarded" but I thought the deposed Greg Roman was too - if not a bit unconventional. Lynn certainly has his work cut out for him, especially now that Rex seems to be taking an interest in the offense, because obviously the defense, which he is so well known for, is running so smoothly.

Amazing Work by U.S. Swim Team

First off, let's congratulate them for winning 33 medals at these 2016 Rio Olympics 16 of them Gold. Michael Phelps himself, of course, after coming out of retirement no less, has one five golds and one sliver, bringing his career total to 28 medals over four Olympics, including 23 golds. Yes, the results in the pool for the U.S. swimmers are pretty awesome.

But, let's talk for a minute about the results out of the pool. Did you realize Phelps had two DUIs? Even though he doesn't seem to be hiding it, I guess I didn't. I did know about the infamous bong photo. And when people expressed disbelief, I always harkened back to the swimmers I knew in high school, who we used to joke had "swimmers lung" and thus could take the biggest hits. I other words it was no real surprise to me that Phelps was smoking pot. It obviously doesn't seem to have negatively affected his ability to swim really fast.

Of course, this whole Ryan Lochte posse thing at the Rio Games sheds new light on the US Swim Team's partying. Unfortunately, it really makes the guys involved come off like assholes. In their defense, it seems they were truly drunk after attending a part at the French Olympic house. Yes, those damn French. Who could expect a bunch of naive American swimmers to keep up with them? Then again, Lochte seems to have a bit of a party history: There is this Las Vegas race with Prince Harry. Then, there was this failed reality show, ominously titled, "What would Ryan Lochte Do?" Apparently just about anything.

Then, there is this guy: 35-year old Anthony Ervin who won gold at the 2000 Olympics and then again this year. In between he apparently smoked cigarettes, took acid, and rode a motorcycle really fast in an apparent attempt to kill himself.

So, there you have it - what could possibly be the most successful swim team in Olympic history, punctuated by a least a few individuals who are not afraid to color outside the lines at times. Not sure what this says. Does partying and being an elite swimmer go hand in hand? Are the U.S. training methods so great that our swimmers can win despite their out-of-the-pool forays? Is all this irrelevant? I don't know, but I know I like to swim, especially in open water and it's been a great summer for that. And that Usain Bolt can really run - and he's from Jamaica...

Make A-Rod the Yankees Manager

If the scene between A-Rod and Sterling Castro really played out like this piece on Deadspin says it did, why not fire Girardi and hire A-Rod to manage the Yankees? I have been a big Girardi defender for the past few years, as he seems like a pretty good guy who tries hard at his job and isn't totally incompetent. By all accounts, he did a great job before getting fired by the Marlins, due to an apparent rift with the owners. And, stuck with multiple aging players and bad contracts, I think Girari has done a  decent job coaxing the Yankees into the playoffs most years and even winning a World Series.

That said, there seems to be something missing in his managerial style. I think this blog post by Wallace Matthews sums it up pretty well. In criticizing Girardi for not playing A-Rod down this veritable home stretch (okay, maybe "tail end" is better) of his career, he calls the manager "the rigid, joyless man who writes out the Yankees' lineup card each day." Right there is Girardi's problem: he's joyless. Perhaps his dour personality is what has dragged the strength out of our luckless veterans. (Apparently there was no love lost between Ichiro and Girardi.)

So, what about offering A-Rod the ultimate comeuppance on his current adversary and firing Girardi to make A-Rod the manager? Look, everyone says A-Rod has a very high baseball I-Q. And he certainly will bring more joy, at least on the exterior, to the Yankees dugout. And, then there is the aforementioned Castro story from yesterday:

"I asked [A-Rod] about the pitcher and he said, ‘Be ready for a curveball on the first pitch,’” Castro said. “He was so happy in the dugout when I looked in there after the double. He told me to be ready for the first-pitch curve and I was. If he didn’t tell me that, I would have taken that pitch because I would have been looking for something harder.”

Okay, maybe A-Rod would be better suited to be a batting coach, like Barry Bonds, but, fuck it, the opportunity to turn the tables on Girardi seems too good here. I know A-Rod said emphatically during his press conference that he would not be a coach, but could he really turn down this opportunity?

I am currently reading a book about baseball in the 1920s called "Big Sticks" (insert favorite porno joke here) and during that time, it was very common for star players like Rogers Hornsby, Ty Cobb, and Tris Speaker to manage. (Babe Ruth apparently thought he was qualified as well, but the Yankees did not.) I think A-Rod ranks right up there with those guys - in terms of baseball acumen, as well as being a jerk, so why not give him a chance? Kind of a throwback choice if you will. What's the worst that could happen? And, what if he did manage to lead them to a World Series win at some point? What a redemption story that would be!

The Fix Is In

I came across this website the other day and I wondered what you thought of the premise, Ralph. It's called The Fix Is In and it's written by Brian Tuohy.

The author essentially claims that five major sports are fixed (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and NASCAR). I think he's mostly trying to sell books, and conspiracy theories can generate big money, and even though, from time to time, critics are able to point to individual instances of shady dealings in sports, such as the Black Sox Scandal and the Tim Donaghy fiasco, overall, the outcomes of these sports are not regularly manipulated by a few select parties.

Here's my take: Like most conspiracy theories, much needs to be ignored for the assertion of "the fix" to work. In other words, Tuohy's position essentially ignores the fact that a lot of money (billions) can be generated by having the greatest athletes in the world complete against one another.

In that fact alone there is not much need to manipulate outcomes. Set up a system where the athletes compete for a championship and sell the rights to television. Not a complicated scenario.

I certainly don't believe that Roger Goodell is telling NFL referees to manipulate outcomes. Do you know how many eyes are on the NFL each week? Millions. We collectively review every single play from six different angles in slow motion. If there was a pattern of manipulation, we would surely have seen it by now.

As it stands, the refs get most calls right. You may believe that they could have let an action stand or that they should have called it differently, but the pattern, in my nearly 50 years of watching football, has been that they do a pretty good job and that there is no widespread pattern of game manipulation.

Further, I do not believe players are manipulating outcomes. Most players have performance bonuses built into their contracts, so they're not going to "take a dive" in order to win a bet from a Las Vegas bookie. Those days are long gone. Peyton Manning, for example, had a $2 million bonus for winning the AFC Championship game and another $2 million for winning the Super Bowl. He's trying to win. And what bookie is ever going to pay out that kind of money? They'd sooner kill you and bury you in the desert than pay out that kind of bet. So the rules are mostly "fixed" to promote the players to strive for excellence.

Finally, I'm a big believer in Occam's Razor. Essentially, that means that the simplest explanation is typically the best explanation. So, we can choose to believe that there is a grand manipulation of the outcomes of these various sports by very powerful men in order to make money for themselves and hold the rest of us as gullible dupes while only writers like Brian Tuohy know about it...or it could be that the sports are essentially above board and limited to only occasional manipulation which is almost always discovered in the long run.

I'll go with the latter.

Requiem for Another Lost Bills Season

So, for all intents and purposes that Bills 2016 season is over, and sadly, it has ended mostly as we expected it to - with a disappointing mediocre record and not trip to the playoffs for the 16th straight year. There were definitely some ups and downs in the season, including a scintillating season-opening day win over the Colts that had us all talking Super  Bowl, because we didn't realize at the time that the Colts actually sucked. There were also a couple wins over Miami and a win over the Jets.

But, there were tons of disappointments as well. Going 0-3 so far against the not-to-mighty NFC East and two losses to the Patriots foremost in mind at the moment. Oh, then there was the London experience.

Curiously enough, the Bills biggest question mark coming into this season was quarterback, and Tyrod Taylor ended up playing very well. Our running game, anchored by the amazing LeSean McCoy, was also strong. Basically, the offense, under coordinator Greg Roman delivered what we asked for.

Our defense, on the other hand, has really let us down. This is a unit that ranked near the top of the league in several statistical categories last year, including sacks, which are supposed to be our new coach, Buddy Ryan's specialty. Well, this year, under Ryan's direction, we've gone from near first in the league in sacks to near las,t and our defense has been decidedly mediocre. Thus, a team that was built on being able to run the football and play good defense, was unable to achieve the second part of that equation, and viola, that result has been a 6-8 record so far and no playoff birth.

What happened? On a detailed level, that's for the analysts to debate. On a macro-level, I'll go back to what I said almost a year ago, when the Bills announced they'd hired Rex (and signed him to an expensive, long-term contract, meaning he's not going anywhere for awhile): Rex Snowed the Bills.

I wish it wasn't so, because by all accounts Rex seems like a great guy, but he really was not the right man for the job. I know he is promising a lot of changes for next year, but I'm not sure that's what we want. We were on the cusp of being a good team, and now it sounds like we're going back to the rebuilding stage. Not sure, now much more of this Bills fans can take, or what the solution is.

I don't think we have the personnel to play Rex's defense. However, somehow, with basically this same personnel, Rex's former assistant, Mike Pettine and last year's defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, were able to produce very strong seasons. So, Rex's comes in and now it looks like we have to rebuild.

If Rex is really all he's cracked himself up to be, he should give the Pegulas their money back, offer to coach next season for free, or offer to quit if the Bills don't make the playoffs next year - or something along those lines. Yes, Rex has won before in the NFL, but I'm not as confident as he is that he can do it again. Let's home I'm wrong, but as a Bills fan, I doubt that I am.

BIlls-Jags Yahoo! Experience

Read a lot about the Bills-Jags being streamed by Yahoo!, the first time any game was carried exclusively like that live to an international audience. Our regular Bills crew (three families) watched it at our house. Biggest complaint by the masses, at least according to Peter King in his always excellent Monday Morning Quarterback column, was that people were complaining they couldn't watch it on their big screens.

After some serious tinkering, I was able to get the game to stream on both my flat screens. On one I used my Chromecast - although I had to download a Chrome plug-in first, and into the other I plugged an HDMI cable. Somehow though, late in the first half, the larger screen, which was running the Chromecast, started stalling out-  there may have been too many people on the network - then it got behind, and we were never able to catch up. We ended up watching the second half on the smaller TV perched on the kitchen counter, checking the larger screen in the living room for instant replays. So, my only  complaint would be lack of a fast-forward button that would have enabled our larger screen to catch up.

It was fun, however (at least to me), setting the whole thing up and then being able to serve and eat breakfast during the game. This left the rest of the day, which turned out to be beautiful, free to do things like play whiffle ball and rake leaves.

As for the game, yeah, the Bills lost to the miserable Jaguars. And, yes, EJ gave the game way early before contributing to/leading (sort of) a comeback in the second half that briefly gave us the lead, before the defense collapsed again. But, it was an entertaining game, and since I wasn't betting on it, what am I really trying to get out of pro football anyhow?

Cheers.

Ralph

Lucky vs. Titans; Outlook Questionable

Well, this guy sums it up pretty good. Basically what is he saying is "same old Bills." And in a lot of ways, I think this is true. Yes, I know Tyrod Taylor is getting all sorts of praise for his early play and according to my nine-year-old son he had the second most fantasy points of any quarterback in the league yesterday, but what I saw vs. the Titans on offense was unsustainable. Taylor threw for 109 yards on the day, with 46 of them coming on one play. You're not going to win too many games in the NFL with this type of offense. We scored 14 points!

Luckily, the Titans were equally incompetent on offense, even though they outgained the Bills 276-209, piling up an especially large edge in the first half. The problem was that Tennessee failed to convert several trips into our side of the field into many points, while the Bills were 2-for-2, scoring TDs on both legitimate drives that I recall. Neither Bills TD was particularly impressive from a planned-and-executed play perspective - Tyrod scored on a great scrambling run on what was basically a broken play a called QB draw, and Hogan bobbled but hung on to a low thrown two-yard pass on 3rd and goal to provide the winning points. To me, these types of plays are somewhat lucky and could have gone either way - and we're kinda lucky the Titans didn't pull off similar plays.

Yes, the defense was good, especially in the second half, but we've known we have a good defense for three years now. Stephon Gilmore was especially impressive, including on the game-clinching interception. And he has clearly taken strides forward this year in Ryan's defensive scheme, so let's give Rex some credit for that - Revis emerged as an All-Pro under Ryan as well, but let's also remember both players were fairly high draft picks, so it's not like Ryan uncovered diamonds in the rough. Otherwise the defense has been, at best, as good as last year, and definitely weaker against the run.

The "same old" part of my analysis applies largely to the QB play. Remember in 2008, when the Bills got off to a 4-0 start and SI's Peter King named Trent Edwards his quarter-season MVP? Or, in 2011, when the Bills got off to a 4-2 start and signed Ryan Fitzpatrick to a huge contract extension? Now, I hate to say Taylor is going to end up like these two flameouts, but unfortunately, all the signs seem to be pointing that way. To me, Taylor appears to have a limited skill set - he can run the ball and throw deep fairly effectively, but is maddeningly inconsistent on shorter and middle-range throws. Some of this may have to do with his receivers, and missing a stud like Sammy Watkins is certainly affecting him, but Taylor's aim looked pretty bad yesterday. I just don't think you can win consistently in today's NFL without some semblance of a decent short-to-mid-range passing game and the Bills showed up without one yesterday.

I worry that after getting film on Taylor, NFL defenses will adjust and take away his limited strengths and that eventually his reckless running (while exciting) will lead to injury. This would, of course, lead to EJ, who on paper would appear to have a broader skill set, but we've seen EJ in games, and paper has not necessarily translated to performance. So, yeah, I'm worried about the Bills season.

Could LeSean come back and take some of the burden off the QB and enable us to win mainly through "ground-and-pound" offense and good D? That was the plan I thought, but through five games, I certainly haven't seen anything resembling a dominant running attack, with Karlos Williams appearing to be our best back and Williams now out with a concussion before he proved he could handle a full-game load. Take out Taylor and yesterday's rushing numbers were 50 yards on 21 carries. That's not going to get it done. And McCoy is out for at least a few more weeks with Williams status uncertain as far as I know.

Do we have a plan B? I guess let Taylor scramble and throw deep and hope Watkins' return (imminent?) opens up the field more for underneath throws that hopefully Taylor can connect on like he did vs. Miami, as compared to yesterday's struggles.

Good luck Bills. I know we have the talent to beat Cincy next week, but if we can't execute any better on offense, I don't know that it is possible. That said, Dalton is known to be susceptible to pressure and as yesterday's second half proved, the Bills are still capable of that. Once again, go Bills!

As a side note, I think my friend Matt deserves his share of credit for the Bills win yesterday. We enjoyed the game at his house, complete with a wonderful spread featuring grilled chicken wings and pulled pork. Absolutely delicious. Unfortunately for Matt, he had to be barred from watching the game from his captain's seat in the living room, as we noticed in the second half that every time he left the room good things would happen for the Bills and when he returned, our luck was reversed. I won't give specific examples, but the evidence was undeniable. So, Matt had to watch most of the 4th quarter craning his neck from the living room threshold to see the TV, a sacrifice he willingly made to ensure victory. If someone who knows Rex Ryan is reading this, please pass it on as another example of how great Bills fans can be - something he continually seems to be expressing his admiration for, in what is at least a great PR move on his part.

Bills off to Strong Start

The Rex Ryan era is only three games old, but the Buffalo Bills are certainly off the to a strong start. Their 41-14 beatdown of Miami in Miami was certainly impressive. This followed a strong opening win vs. the Colts, and then an interesting loss vs. New England, in which the Bills looked miserable for the majority of the game, but never quit and came back to make it interesting in the fourth quarter. And, of course, New England is pretty good.

So, we sit at 2-1, with two dominating defensive performances and an offense that has been pretty good - spearheaded by quarterback Tyrod Taylor, a former Ravens back-up making his first NFL starts and rookie running back Karlos Williams, who is averaging almost eight yards per carry. [Of course, this brings back into question the logic behind signing Shady McCoy to that expensive contract extension, which I've called into question before. Then again, I also called into question (at least once) the signing of Percy Harvin (which I thought my have contributed to Freddie getting cut), but he has looked great, and he and Tyrod really seem to be on the same page.]

Let's remember through that Ryan was able to take the Jets to the Conference Championship game in his first two years with the Jets, so I'm not really surprised by his early success with the Bills. It's the long-term consequences of moves like the McCoy contract that have me concerned. Plus, it's very early in the season, but the Bills have looked good.

Let's start with the defense. Ryan has been quoted as saying he wanted to "build a bully" in Buffalo, and he certainly seems to have done that. In addition to playing good defense, the Bills seem to be playing really physical defense. I don't know if there is a stat that can track hard hits and intimidation, but, as I've said before, this is the hardest hitting Bills defense since the Wade Philips days, and those were some killer defensive units.

I'm hoping the Patriots game was an anomaly, as, for whatever reason, the blitz-happy Ryan only dialed up 15 blitzes in more than 60 passing plays run by the Patriots after blitzing 27 times vs. the Colts the week previous. What I'm hoping is that Ryan realizes it's a long season and that he didn't want to tip his hand to the Patriots too early. In 2010, his Jets lost 45-3 to the Patriots before turning around and beating them in the playoffs. So, maybe Ryan is playing his cards close to the vest vs. the Patriots in anticipation of a higher stakes game against them in January. Does that seem far fetched?

As I mentioned, Tyrod has been fairly good on offense, completing more than 70% of his passes and hitting on seven TD passes vs. three interceptions. His biggest drawbacks - those three INTs came vs. the Pats in a game where he also took seven or eight sacks. Against, New England, Taylor clearly seemed to be holding the ball too long as he went through his reads, but to his credit, Taylor never appeared to panic and did make enough plays to earn a 93 QB rating for the game - for what that is worth.

Against Miami yesterday, Buffalo and offensive coordinator Greg Roman, went to more moving pockets and kept Taylor off the ground, while also appearing to give him lanes to throw - he's only 6' 0", so this is kind of a big deal. I think Colin Kaepernick's dismal performance yesterday also underscored somewhat Roman's ability as an OC. Kaepernick became a star under Roman's guidance - granted Roman was let go in San Francisco after the offense struggled somewhat last year - but he seems to have transferred some of that Kaepernick magic over to Taylor, at least for now. Taylor gets great reviews for his work ethic, so maybe he will continue to evolve and develop in Roman's offense, where Kaepernick seemed to stagnate after a while, and with Roman now gone, Kaepernick "rock bottom" yesterday.

To touch on Williams, he's a big back, a real downhill, north-south runner, who hits the hole quickly (or the line if a hole is not there) and has been much more effective than the elusive McCoy so far in Roman's offense. McCoy is averaging 3.4 yards per carry. Yes, it's early, but so far Taylor, Williams, and Harvin have been the three most impressive pieces of the Bills offense. (Richie Incognito is getting rave reviews too.)

Harvin had seven catches in eight targets yesterday, several for first downs. After a very promising start to his career in Minnesota, Harvin really struggled the past three years, bouncing around from the Vikings to the Seahawks, to the Jets, to finally Buffalo, but so far appears to be a good fit in Roman's offense and with Taylor at QB. Kudos to Ryan for choosing to pursue Harvin in the offseason even if his tenure with the Jets last year was not great (he scored one TD in eight games.)

Next week is home vs. the Giants. Let's hope there is no letdown following a big emotional win on the road over a division rivals. Giants don't seem that great, but they do have Eli Manning, which could make them dangerous. I heard a radio analyst the other day say that the Bills were destined for 8-8 due to the emotional nature of Ryan's coaching. The analysis was that you can't sustain a high level of emotion throughout a 16-game NFL season and that Ryan's team were susceptible to peaks and valleys that prevented them from being truly great - like say teams coached by emotionally level-headed guys like Bill Belichick (who always appears to be a dick). I'm hoping that analyst is wrong.

Go Bills.

Bills vs. Colts 2016 Opening Day

Yes, we are ready to get started with another Buffalo Bills season. I have been a Bills fan now for more than 40 years and the season has ended in disappointment probably 37 of those years. Lately, for at least the last 10 years, I've gone things with a fairly pessimistic attitude, so I was actually kind of happy with last year's 9-7 record, although we certainly had a chance to do better.

This year, for the first time in awhile, I'm going in with no idea what to expect. We have a new coach, Rex Ryan, who has certainly enjoyed some success in the past, but some failure as well. We have a quarterback who has been in the league for four years as a back-up, but has only thrown 35 regular season passes. He's also relatively short for an NFL signal caller and even though he completed almost 60% of his passes his senior year in college, has the reputation of really not being very accurate. We are definitely going to learn a lot about Tyrod Taylor in the upcoming weeks.

Ideally, his impact should be somewhat minimized by the presence of our great defense and a running game that the Bills have invested heavily in, not necessarily through the trade of Kiko Alonso for LeSean McCoy, but by ludicrously signing McCoy (who many feel may already be past his prime) to a hefty five-year contract extension. Whatever. It should have little affect on the team this year unless of course the insane cutting of Fred Jackson has something to do with Shady's contract.


Offensive questions aside, the Bills return almost all their starters from a defense that last year was fairly highly regarded by almost all measures. Fourth in points allowed, only 16 TD passes given up, second in net yards allowed passing - all good stuff. And none of the key players are really old, although Kyle Williams is on the wrong side of 30. We did, of course, change defensive coaches, as D is Rex Ryan's specialty and there wasn't any more room in town for Jim Schwartz, who by all accounts did an excellent job. But this should not prove to be a downgrade. We also lost Brandon Spikes, who was a key run stopper, so we'll see how that affects us. Biggest worry, however, is that Leodis McKelvin, who we were counting on to start at cornerback is out for at least the first six weeks of the season after taking a longer than expected to recover from an ankle injury suffered late last year. Ryan's defensive schemes reportedly put a lot of pressure on cornerbacks (Darrell Revis earned his initial NFL bones under Ryan's tutelage) and now we're stuck with rookie second-round pick Ronald Darby starting. Darby has been very up-and-down during the preseason.

All this leads to a very mysterious match-up (at least from my vantage point) today vs. the Colts. On the plus side, the game is at home, but aside from that I really don't know what to expect. Will our vaunted pass defense hold up against last year's number one passing attack? Will we be able to move the ball vs. a defense that was fairly mediocre last year before shutting down the Broncos in the playoffs. (Funny side note: I was reading an article on Peyton Manning the other day that blamed a "physical game" against the Bills in Week 14 for starting his downfall last year with culminated with that Colts' win. So, maybe the Colts owe us one in a karmatic sense.)

The pick: All that aside, going by the paper (which is really all I got except for one visit to the Bills training camp and seeing maybe a couple/three quarters worth of pre-season Bills play) I've got to go Colts 24, Bills 19. From a fan's standpoint, hopefully I'm wrong.

Nostalgia, the NFL, and One Hundred Years of Solitude

Just finished re-reading Gabriel Garcia Marquez's masterpiece, One Hundred Years of Solitude. It tells the story of the Buendia family and the rise and fall of Macondo the town founded by the patriarch and matriarch of the family. It goes through several generations and ends pretty much with the last generation being wiped out by their affection for sex and nostalgia - two of my favorite vices by the way.

There is some fascinating stuff in the there about time and how it is not linear, but how everything happens at once - but I want to focus on the nostalgia part a bit. As I mentioned previously, I recently started thinking a lot about the 1970s NFL and even did some rudimentary research into the success rates of the six teams that really dominated the era. Why is the 1970s NFL so important to me? The more I think about it, it has to be nostalgia.

The 1970s were when I was coming of age as a child and the NFL seemed so great, so exciting. Really, all sports did to me, but the NFL was probably the most accessible and the most exciting. I realize a lot of bad things came of that time, like injuries to underpaid players who now can't afford proper medical care or who have died due to complications from the era. That said, I can't help but remembering the games with fondness. (This is also mentioned by Kevin Cook in his excellent book The Last Headbangers, which is about football in that era.)

So, here's a quote from One Hundred Years of Solitude, which I think sums up the power of nostalgia and why I can't help but think of the 1970s NFL as a great thing, when a lot of evidence points to the contrary. Aureliano, the last surviving Buendia, is deciphering parchments which foretell the destruction of the town. "Then the wind began, warm, incipient, full of voices from the past, the murmurs of ancient geraniums, sighs of disenchantment that proceeded the most tenacious nostalgia."

Yes, there are certainly "sighs of disenchantment" around the 1970s NFL, but the tenacity of the nostalgia is so great, that I can't resist it. More on this later.

Freddie B and the 1970s Raiders

I recently started doing some research on the NFL in the 1970s - when I first became of fan of the league. For a point of reference (and I've probably mentioned it before), the first Super Bowl I ever watched was Super Bowl VII, when the Dolphins completed their undefeated season by beating the favored Redskins - yes, there apparently was still a bias for the NFC over the AFC in those days. Coincidentally, my younger son, Andrew, who is 8, recorded a recent airing of an NFL Films replay of a Dolphins-Raiders playoff game from 1974 - a classic known as the "Sea of Hands" game. I remember watching this game with my grandfather and I remember the classic last play for which the game is named (watch the video in the link).

The NFL Films replay is part of its "Greatest Games ever Played" series and was apparently made only a few years ago, as footage of the game was inadvertently lost for several years. The production includes a great piece on Erie native and Hall of Fame wide receiver Fred Biletnikoff. Biletnikoff had a great game including a TD catch that Ken Stabler called the greatest catch he saw in 15 years of playing. The segment on Biletnikoff includes a discussion Freddie's personality. Stabler said Fred was so high strung that if you walked up behind him and yelled, he'd jump up on the ceiling  like cat on all fours, or something like that. Raiders linebacker Phil Villapiano said that Fred "didn't take care of himself," or something along those lines and talked about Fred throwing up before games.

I found Villapiano's comments somewhat ironic, based on something I had read recently about Villpiano. Check out this excerpt from Kevin Cook's The Last Headbangers:  NFL Football in the Rowdy, Reckless '70's. Yes, that's Villapiano, banging he head against the wall so it swells up and fits better in his "piece of junk" plastic helmet. There is also a play in that Sea of Hands game where Stabler goes back to pass with his chinstrap undone. Cook does a good job (and I've only read part of the free sample of the book from Amazon so far) saying he does not promote the behavior that led to head injuries and lawsuits later on involving NFL players, but is merely reporting on the play that helped make the NFL the multi-billion dollar conglomerate that it is today. I just thought that it was ironic the Villapiano (who apparently came out okay as he is some sort of logistics executive) was talking about what a bad job Freddie did taking care of himself, when, well, you know, he was purposely giving himself concussions. They really don't make them like that anymore.

By the way, from what I've heard, Fred, who is 72, is doing great.