Why Trump Needs AI

There's a great Dilbert strip that ran today. In it, our favorite jaded engineer is discussing the "breakthrough" he had in developing AI technology. Basically, he realized he was trying to duplicate something that doesn't exist: "rational human thought."

I think that fairly explains the current situation in the White House. Very few people who thought about it rationally would vote for the Donald as our president. At least that's what us Dems like to tell ourselves. But, there is more to the human make-up than rational thought. Unlike Dilbert, I haven't despaired completely, but I do realize that rationality only makes up part of our "intelligence." There are definitely things like "gut" and instinct that also come into play when making decisions. Trump has always understood this and capitalized on it vs. Dems who want to intellectualize everything.

And until the people that make AI understand this...well, maybe they already do. Check out this article that recently ran in The Atlantic on Why Technology Favors Tyranny. I mean look at what Facebook is being accused of doing to the U.S. elections.

Perhaps the bottom line is that Trump doesn't need to be smart, he's got tools (computers) he can leverage for that.

Quarterbacks Going the Way of Running Backs.

Here's an interesting little tidbit I found on the Web when searching to see who the NFL's highest paid quarterbacks are: None of the top six paid quarterbacks in the league willmake the playoffs. That's right, Rodgers, Ryan, Cousins, Stafford, etc., not to mention Roethlisberger and Flacco, who both carry a cap hits of more than $20 million, led their teams to the playoffs this year.

On the other side of the ledger, you had Mahomes, Trubisky, Goff, Deshaun Watson, and Dak Prescott (I'm not sure how you want to count Wentz and Lamar Jackson) - playing on their rookie contracts - take their teams to the promised land.

Here is what I believe: Quarterbacks are coming out of college more ready than ever and getting better coaching when they reach the pros. I had the opportunity to go to the Bills game last Sunday and watch Josh Allen throw three TD passes and run for two more, for which he was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week. Allen has certainly struggled at times this year, as was to be expected as he was considered the most "raw" of the any of the top QBs in last year's draft, but by the end of the year, he certainly looked like he could compete on an NFL level. More improvements should be expected next year, as well as from Baker Mayfield, who was great this year, leading the Browns to practically more wins in 2018 than they've had in the last decade, Sam Darnold, who showed flashes of brilliance, Josh Rosen and Lamar Jackson, who's team is already in the playoffs.

My point is, why pay a veteran quarterback $20 million per year, when you can draft a top rookie, pay him on his initial contract for 4-5 years and then, if you did it right, draft another, in the mean time paying people around him, like the Bears and Rams have done, to create a strong overall roster? This Bills, for example, apparently have $86 million cap space (not sure if this includes Shady's contract) available for next year, which potentially enables them to sign some serious free agents to build around Allen (assuming they can attract them to Buffalo). Could the Bills be a contender in 2019 and/or '20? Why not?

After that, you have to make a decision on Allen. How good will college QBs coming out be in three years? I know this year seems like a thin year for QBs in the draft, so maybe what I am proposing is a fallacy and the last two years were anomalies, but I am thinking it may be a trend.

Here's my theory: No more taking several years to develop quarterbacks and then paying them big money when they mature. Bring them out of college, let them run all they want to (ala Allen and Jackson), use them up, and move on to the next college phenom. In the mean time, use that $20 million (probably $30 million in a couple years) that you had earmarked for you QB and pay your defense, lineman, receivers, etc. Seems to have worked for the Seahawks for a few years and is working for multiple teams right now. Perhaps this is the next blueprint for success in the NFL.